Relationship Between House Prices And Macro Factors Using Empirical Analysis

At the year of1998, the welfare housing system was abolished by thegovernment, and the real estate market which is recognized as a neweconomic boom and a consumption hot spot, began to develop rapidly. Thedevelopment of the real estate market contributes to the development of otherrelative industries, which makes itself become the precursor and mainstayindustry of the economy, and makes a great contribution to the rapid growthof GDP. Meanwhile, the question is that the real estate price rises unceasinglywith the rapid development of real estate, and the phenomenon of excessiveprosperity takes place. Especially in recent years, real estate price is muchhigher out of the government and ordinary people’s expectations. The idlefunds flow into real estate market, and the speculation pushes real estate priceto a much higher position. It is not benefit for our country’s real estate marketand social security of our people.In this article, by analyzing real estate price and investment in fixed assets, land price, interest rate, Real Estate Tax which are related withmacro-control from1998, we find some correlations between these factorsand real estate price in recent years. And by the volatility of the real estatemarket, testing, regression analysis, we can confirm short-term and long-termfactors which have influence on real estate price. The test methods we use arethe Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test, and thedata is from1998to2010with real estate price, investment in fixed assets,land price, interest rate and real estate tax. We confirm that these factorsaffect real estate price, the government can inhibit the real estate price byadjusting these factors. Finally, the purpose of this paper is to put forwardsome suggestions on how to use these short-term and long-term factors tosuppress real estate price rising too fast by using our test results andempirical analysis.