Research On The Influence Of Exchange Rate Fluctuation To Tianjin’s Export And Import Trade

Exchange rate can make influences on one country’s economic, through impressing the import and export trade activities. The exchange rates for RMB against major world currencies all have made big waves, since our country executed a managed floating exchange rate system. Especially for the RMB long-term appreciation posture against US dollar has caused the public awareness for the influences which exchange rate fluctuations make on import and export trade. China has become the world’s largest exporter and second large importers in the world, ever since its accession to the WTO. The striking case of raw materials’ export limitation and the heating consumer goods import boom all indicate structural problems in the import and export trades. Exploring paths through which exchange rate affects on the import and export trades from distinguishing materials and final consumer goods can provide us a research method that close to real hot issues. Besides, it could be very useful for solving these implied structural problems. And also helping us understanding how the exchange rate fluctuation works facing different kind of trade.Real effective exchange rate considers trade proportion between countries and price adjustment caused by inflation. Study for affects the real effective exchange rate fluctuation gets on import and export trades can make more sense for observing the import and export industry structure adjustment made by exchange rate, under the background of the yuan to the dollar appreciation and CPI attention.Tianjin has the largest comprehensive port among the north China, and develops well in the import and export trade. In2011, the total amount of import and export break through$billions successfully, and the trade structure has also changed a lot. Researches on the influences real effective exchange rate fluctuation makes on Tianjin export and import trade has the profound realistic significance.This thesis takes the combination of the qualitative and quantitative methods, first explores ways exchange rate fluctuations effect import and export. Then it makes the whole and separate analysis using quantitative methods for the affections. The conclusions are as bellows. Innovation factors can change the nature of the influence made by the exchange rate fluctuations for import and export trade. And it can be trade as a relief valve for exchange rate transmission. Real effective exchange rate fluctuation has evident effects on import and export trade of Tianjin. Since1985, real effective exchange rate has made different effects on import and export trade in different periods. Overall, the real effective exchange rate changes every1%, Tianjin’s total export and import volume will change about0.52%in the same way. And once the range of the exchange rate fluctuation is increased by1%, the fluctuation of Tianjin’s total import and export volume will increase by about3.12%. In addition, exchange rate fluctuation makes the deepest affect on Tianjin’s general trade import and export, and processing trade import and export oppositely. Finally, the thesis also puts forward suggestions as to focus on researches and strengthen the innovation ability; optimization trade structure; cultivate and develop domestic import and export enterprises; open more foreign markets and so on.