The Study On Relationship Between Road Transport And Economic Development In Shenyang

In this paper, using16years from1995to2010data to validate the relationshipbetween road transport and economic development in Shenyang. Datas of the roadtransport in Shenyang, include the length of highways, the public car ownership, roadpassenger and road freight traffic. The city’s economic indicators include Gross RegionalProduct (GDP) of Shenyang.Datas suggest that some of the data are in the form of rising and falling, rather thanaround a fixed value fluctuate. This suggests that the existence of unit root non-stationarydata. When the non-stationary datas are used in model, there will be spurious regression.The so-called spurious regression is that when nonstationary time series data are used tomake model, similarly may obtain the ideal results. The coefficient of determination ofthe results is very high, and t-test and F-test results is very significant. But the modelis different from the actual situation, even contrary to the situation. This is spuriousregression. The reason of the spurious regression is that these time series datas arenonstationary. Traditional time series analysis method can not be used due to thepresence of these non-stationary datas. Cointegration theory is a good solution to thisproblem. Detecting each data by unit root test, we can get the cointegration relationshipfrom each other when each of the data are the same order integration.By using cointegration theory, we analyze the relationship among the length ofhighways, the public car ownership, road passenger capacity, road freight traffic andGDP of Shenyang, and get the relationship between the length of highways and GDP, thepublic car ownership and GDP, road passenger and GDP, road freight traffic and GDP.Finally, according to the model and compare the date of Chongqing and Shenyang,summed up some troubles about highway mileage, the quantity of the car retains,highway passenger traffic volume and the haighway freight volume of Shenyang, andfind out the causes of these problems. Finally, put some proposals to solve and improvethe relevant problems. These proposals will be better for the economic construction ofShenyang.