| After20years of development, the real estate industry has already developed into the pillar industries in China, and it plays a vital role in stimulating the growth of China’economy. However, in the process of rapid growth of real estate industry, the continuously rising real estate price has not only caused some serious social problems, but also brought great hidden dangers for great swings in our country’s economic. As the real estate industry takes an important position in our country economy, its circulating state will have great influence on the continual and healthy development of national economy. When it occurs such state as over-heat or atrophy, it will cause the real estate market lose its balance of supply and demand as well as its fluctuation in price. Therefore, it has very important meaning to study the real estate price fluctuation, and through roundly analyzing, we can judge whether normal of the real estate market, and accordingly afford gist for specific policy.The study thinking of the thesis is cleat. This paper launched from three directions on the theoretical study of the real estate price.Firstly, the paper focuses on the analysis of the real estate supply and demand impacted on the real estate price, and analysis the main causes of fluctuation in the real estate price.Secondly, the real estate price bubble in the market is the controversial spot of people. The excessive of the real estate price will cause the produce of the real estate bubble. Therefore this paper focused on tested and judged the excessive of the real estate price fluctuation in our country. And then judge whether or not the real estate price appears excessive fluctuation in our country.Finally, the regulation of real estate market is a strong guarantee for the real estate healthy development. Therefore, review the control policy of real estate in our country, looking for solutions of the problems, and guide the real estate industry of our country healthy development.According to the research content and research thought evolution, the thesis is divided into five chapters. The chapter one is the generality of the whole thesis. The chapter two analysis the causes of fluctuation in the real estate price from the theoretical and empirical analysis method. The chapter three proceeds to expand the research on the real estate price fluctuation, judged whether or not the real estate price appears excessive fluctuation in our country. The chapter four established the excessive of the real estate price fluctuation theory model. Use the gap of supply and demand to explain the excessive of the real estate price fluctuation. The chapter five, review and effect analysis China’s real estate control policy, and put forward the control suggestions.Chapter one:introduction. In this chapter, we discussed the studying background, including putting forward this problem, objective and significance of this dissertation, and the studying scope. And to a domestic and foreign literature review of real estate prices for relevant influence factors, house price bubble and real estate regulation.Chapter two:analysis real estate prices fluctuation characters and influence factors. In the chapter, Expounds real estate price fluctuating characters, house prices periodic trend of fluctuations, and house price fluctuation of regional characteristics. The paper focuses on the analysis of the real estate supply and demand impacted on the real estate price, and analyses the causes of fluctuation in the real estate price.Chapter three:judgment the excessive of the estate price fluctuation. Generally speaking, the real estate price will fluctuate up and down surrounding balanced price. But in practice, it will appear that when real estate price deviates away from equilibrium price, and it return back to equilibrium price in a long term. We call such type of excessive fluctuation. This chapter cited the statistical data in recent years, describe the departure of real estate price away form equilibrium price by using fluctuation index, and then to judge whether or not the real estate price appears excessive fluctuation by testing stationary on the fluctuation index sequence. Through these methods to Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Guangzhou and Chengdu for inspection, the results showed that China’s house price is excessive fluctuation.Chapter four:the mechanism of the excessive of the real estate price fluctuation. This chapter is using the gap of supply and demand, to analyst the excessive of the real estate prices fluctuation in our country. Because of the real estate market supply and demand in the total amount is not always equilibrium, the gap of supply and demand cause house price fluctuations. In addition, this chapter explains the characteristics of supply and demand curve. And the gap of supply and demand for the influence of the house price in short-term and long-term, In addition we use empirical method, further instructions the gap of supply and demand influence of the real state price fluctuation.Chapter five:analyses China’s real estate market regulation policy. And based on the experience of the real estate regulation and control, all these years of experience and lessons in China’s real estate market show that in facing excessive of the real estate market price fluctuations, and in the implementation of regulation, the government sometimes is consciously, sometimes is forced, sometimes it is blind. Because China’s real estate industry is in a late start, so the real estate industry development rule of understanding is the need to further.In order to ensure the price of the real estate market stability, the government has taken a number of regulation and control policies and measures. The primary means of Adjust the supply of real estate market structure. Second, strengthen the bank risk management. Finally, maintain the order of real estate market. |
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