Research On Scenario Simulation Of Gentle Hillside Land Use In Liangjiang New Area Based On Niche Fitness

Along with the process of new urbanization and industrialization speeding up, scientific use for gentle hillside land resource has been an important topic in land planning and management of hill city, however, the current research achievement on suitability evaluation and evolutionary analysis for gentle hillside land use was few, moreover the evolutionary analysis were most chiefly on vertical analysis and could not reflect the space-time characteristics and evolution direction of regional gentle hillside land use. A case study on Jiangbei New area, Chongqing, This paper has built niche-fitness evaluation system for gentle hillside land use unit based on niche fitness and scenario simulation for land use, designed one incentive and punitive dynamic weight correction on the basis of metrics data of confidence interval, evaluated the niche fitness of22gentle hillside land use unit of Liangjiang new area according to natural environment, urban development, industrial garden construction and agriculture development, and analyzed the scenario simulation of land use structure and spatial form with regression analysis, Markov chain, GM (1,1) grey prediction and CLUE-S etc. based on the niche-fitness evaluation results. In this paper, the main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1) This part has brought the Niche fitness theory in the gentle hillside land use evaluation research by further exploring ecological connotation, and designed3land use resource requirement types which are respectively "Positive Growth type","Reverse Growth type" and "Interval suitable type";(2) In this part, the niche fitness of gentle hillside land use unit has been divided into niche fitness of natural environment, urban development, industrial garden and agriculture development based on the analysis of the gentle hillside land use units’ecological functions;(3) This part has designed the index weight correction method of the niche fitness suitability evaluation on gentle hillside land use unit. When the monitoring value of evaluation index was higher than statistics confidence limit, it would adopt the incentive correction, otherwise, adopt the punitive one. If the sector suitability target monitor value of some appraisal point in time overflowed this target in the past years the believing upper limit or the lower limit of monitor statistical value, it would adopt the punitive correction;(4) This part has adopted GM (1,1) grey prediction and CLUE-S etc. to make a scenario simulation for the quantity of gentle hillside land according to the setting target of niche-fitness partition of gentle hillside land use. And, the correction coefficient of the transformed matrix for Markov chain was based on niche fitness of different types of gentle hillside land unit. The transformed driving influence was confirmed with the regression analysis method, the gentle hillside land use spatial was simulated through the CLUE-S land use space scene analog mode;(5) In this part, the paper has carried on the empirical analysis, and the result showed that the weight of index such as the forest and nature index, water and soil loss level index, air pollution index, noise pollution index, per land GDP, the large supermarket of every ten thousand people, the gentle hillside land development intensity, quantity ratio of county level industrial park, volume of freight traffic per ten thousand people, increase value proportion of high-tech enterprise in industrial park, per unit of GDP of land consumption in industrial park etc. has been incentive or punitive corrected, highlighted the contributed and restricted impact on niche fitness evaluation on gentle hillside land use, reflected the space and time characteristics. The result showed that the niche fitness of natural environment and urban development has changed observably, in the initial stage of urbanization and industrialization development, the natural index of gentle hillside land was low, however, in the mature stage, the environmental background has improved a lot. Through contrasting the conventional analog prediction and scenario simulations prediction for gentle hillside land use, the result showed that the construction land was the biggest positive displacement. The agricultural land negative deviation is large, the amplitude of variation of ecology land deviation is small, it conformed to the region characteristics of urbanization and industrialization in Liangjiang New area. Therefore, the result based on different scenario simulation could reflect the regional space and time characteristics and changing rate of gentle hillside land use.The coupling factor of realistic niche and ideal niche of the gentle hillside land for development could be diagnosed scientifically according to the niche fitness of land use as suitability to seek the optimal objective. The simulated result of the land use quantity and space could be corrected reasonably according to the niche fitness of land use unit, and it would help express the directivity function and regional pertinence of the scenario simulation for gentle hillside land use.