Research On The Regional Economic Trends Of Nanjiang Based On Combination Model

Due to historical reasons and the impact of social and natural geographic environment, the regional economic development level of Nanjiang is relatively backward, the society is relatively closed. Nanjiang has a certain degree of particularity, that its regional economic development is good or bad, has a direct impact on the country’s stability and development. In recent years, due to country’s western development policy, the policy of counterpart Yuanjiang and the establishment of Kashi Special Economic Zone, the economy of Nanjiang has developed rapidly. In this unstable situation of regional economic development, using scientific methods to predict the trend of regional economic development in Nanjiang, providing quantitative basis and useful information for economic development planning, guiding the development of its regional economic, is of great significance.This paper carried out research on the trend of regional economic development in Nanjiang. By analyzing the status of regional economic development, we know that the current economic has developed rapidly, but economic development within the region is uneven, economic development is relatively backward; the industrial structure adjustment has constantly optimized; industrial structure within the region has a larger difference, there is a structural defects in foreign trade; living standard is below Xinjiang and the national average, and income gap between regions, between urban and rural is widening; the basic public services has further improved, social development in various fields have made positive progress. However, irrational industrial structure, regional development imbalances, fragile ecological environment, underdeveloped infrastructure, severe personnel shortage, serious insecurity producing, social instability, have seriously hampered the economic development in Nanjiang.According to the analysis of regional economic development status and constraints in Nanjiang, I have built its regional economic development indicators, respectively used multiple linear regression model, BP neural network model and gray model to predict the trend of regional economic development, used induced ordered weighted averaging combination forecasting method to construct composite model, avoiding the limitations of a single model, providing reliable scientific predictions, elaborated Nanjiang regional economic trends from per capita GDP, the economic structure, people’s lives, social development, resources and the environment and other aspects. I have made the following recommendations: rational industrial upgrading, developing competitive industries; fighting for financial investment, improving infrastructure; promoting the new rural construction, urban-rural inequality; creating a favorable environment to attract talent cultivation; dealing with economic development and the relationship between resources and the environment; effectively overcoming the economic development of safe production adversely affected.