Study On The Trade Relations Between China And The Other BRICS Countries

After European sovereign debt crisis, the United States’, Japan’s continued loosen monetary policy bring tremendous pressure to global economy, also have a negative impact on China’s economic growth. Therefore, it’s urgent for China to develop and expand our trading markets. Since the BRICS are the fastest develop economy area,have the largest potential in recent years,they naturely become the first choice for China to to develop further trade with to diversify and expand our trade space. If the BRICS,including China,would strengthen trade relations,they will have great influence on each other and the world economy. Therefore, research on trade relations between China and the other BRICS countries is of much meaning. This thesis send China and other BRICS countries’trade relations as a starting point, analysis the revealed comparative advantage, trade dependence, complementarity of trade and trade friction of them, and based on this, forecast the prospect of China and other BRICS countries’trade relationship.Firstly,this thesis describe the trade situation and each trade advantage products of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa from2005to2011,So as to lay the foundation for the following analysis especially the revealed comparative advantage and the close degree of trade.Secondly,this thesis give a comprehensive analysis of trade relations between China and other BRICS countries. I calculate the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index of BRICS countries from2005to2011in order to analysis the product advantages classified by Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). Then compute the trade volume between China and BRICS and the Trade Intensity (TI) from2005to2011, analysis the close degree of their trade. After that, calculate the Trade Complementarity Index (TCI) in2011.And use the main Import and export commodity categories form2011to2012to reflect the TCI. At last, use the anti-dumping cases from1995to2011as an example to discuss the trade friction between China and the other BRICS countries. Although the TI rate of China and other BRICS countries is not vrey high,and trade friction ofen occur,overall, BRICS countries have high TCI complementation with each other.Each side can make use of comparative advantages to expand their trade, trade relations will become more and more close.And then,I summarize the opportunities and challenges in trade development bewteen China and other BRICS countries.Although there are many difficulties exist in the trade process, the BRICS countries have a vast market, high TCI and common interests,so we should promote the trade development between China and the other BRICS countries vigorously.Then I use the data of cargo volume in trade between China and other BRICS countries to forecast the coming five years’goods amount by Time Series Analysis.At last,this thesis put forward some suggestions for promoting economic and trade cooperation between China and other BRICS countries, including establish the BRICS countries’ Development Bank, Foreign exchange reserve, use China Yuan in trade, promote investment to the other BRICS countries, promote the transformation pattern of trade growth and establish free trade areas for BRICS countries.