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The Model Simulation And Application Study Of Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution " Excess Nitrogen"in Jiangsu Province

Posted on:2012-02-10Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y LiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2251330398992947Subject:Environmental Engineering
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Jiangsu province is located in the Yangtze River Delta economic circle, and the economy is well-developed. Since the nineteen eighties, changes in the mode of production and lifestyle of rural residents brought certain influence to the regional ecological environment. Since reforming and opening up, the intensification of agricultural production in Jiangsu and the deepening of large-scale animal husbandry, on the one hand to meet the increasing demand for agricultural and livestock products; on the other hand, it is also due to the degree of grow separation and imbalance caused increasingly serious issue of agricultural non-point source pollution, especially excess nitrogen pollution. It brought negative influence to the sustainable development of society and economy in jiangsu province. Therefore, study on reasons and influencing factors of excess nitrogen in agricultural non-point source pollution, research of agricultural surplus nitrogen variation process and trend, has the important theory and the practical significance to objectively realize the agricultural non-point source pollution influence factors and reasonable formulation of agricultural non-point source pollution control strategy.This study from the fitting analysis and application research on two aspects, using a nutrient balance method and the theory of literature retrieval and empirical research methods, establish the quantitative analysis model of excess nitrogen pollution, selection of rural residents’consumption and national income of average per capita two influence factors, simulation in research area of excess nitrogen environment Kuznets curve, discuss the area of agricultural non-point source pollution of excess nitrogen control strategy and its environmental benefits.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:1. Agricultural non-point source pollution in Jiangsu province of excess nitrogen generation changes showed "N" type wave type ascendant trend. Before1990, Jiangsu Province fertilizer input to livestock and human manure organic fertilizer, agricultural production of nitrogen supply, no" excess nitrogen". Begin from1990, Jiangsu province intensive agricultural production of large chemical fertilizer application and accompanied by the rapid development of animal husbandry in the organic manure increased, to make agricultural production begins to appear superfluous nitrogen, but showed "N" type wave type increased year by year. Compared with1989,2007Jiangsu Province fertilizer inputs (pure) increased1.7times, while the agricultural surplus nitrogen production capacity has reached8.38times, especially in the1995-1996years quickly-increasing period, to the ecological environment has brought severe pressure. After1997, agriculture of excess nitrogen yield fluctuation hasten delay, firm in have litre, impact on the ecological environment is still at the state of high voltage.2. Jiangsu Province agricultural non-point source pollution of excess nitrogen output and the per capita income level, rural residents living consumption trend has significant correlation. Agricultural non-point source pollution excess nitrogen environment EKC curve showed "N" type, it has entered the right of "N". Using ADF unit root test method, the model fitting degree was higher, the coefficient of determination R2statistic value of0.917. jiangsu province per capita excess nitrogen and the per capita consumption’s environmental EKC relation curve was y=-16.335+0.024x-5.33×10-6x2+3.64×10-10x3, with two turning points, theoretical turning point appeared in per capita consumption value is3522.4yuan and6239.5yuan; Per capita excess nitrogen and the per capita GDP curve was y=2.82×10-12x3-1.89×10-7x2+0.004x-7.874, theoretical turning point appeared in GDP of average per capita is16666.7yuan and28571.4yuan. Jiangsu province agricultural excess nitrogen model regression results indicated:EKC is a possible but not a necessity, in different countries and regions have different forms, different turning point and time span to reach the turning point.3. Example analysis shows that the agricultural non-point source pollution of excess nitrogen environment model (EKC per capita of excess nitrogen and national income of average per capita environmental econometric model) has certain applicability and utility value. A city of Jiangsu Province town of a village as an example, according to the regional soil, hydrological data, through the regional excess nitrogen pollution load calculation, using the calculated area of national income of average per capita of predictive value, the calculated and measured results contrast, predict the outcome of the relative error rate is less than5%, belong to the normal range, the new model has a better simulation effect.
Keywords/Search Tags:Agriculture non-point source pollution, Excess nitrogen, Modelsimulation, Environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), Jiangsu province
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