Research On The Change Of Henan Province’s Ecological Footprint And Its Driving Factors

With the accelerated process of industrialization and the rapidly developed economy, the world has to deal with severe globally ecological and environmental problems. In the late20th Century, sustainable development theory was proposed, in order to change the extensive mode of economic growth. And from then on, scholars from various countries started to work on sustainability research. Among the quantitative studies of the sustainable development degree, Ecological Footprint (EF) Model, raised by Canadian ecological economist William Rees and Dr. Wackernagel, was one of the most representative methods. By calculating and comparing the total ecological demand of a certain area (namely the ecological footprint, EF) and this region’s capacity to sustain the local human activities (namely the ecological capacity, EC), the Ecological Footprint Model could evaluate the sustainability degree of the development of this region. Since this theory and method was introduced into China, it has been widely discussed and applied.In this dissertation, Henan Province, a major agricultural province and a rising industrial province in central China, was regarded as the study area. The ecological footprint, the ecological capacity, the ecological deficit (or remainder) and their corresponding per capita values from1990to2010were evaluated and dynamic analyzed. In addition,10possible driving factors of economy, population and consumption were selected and analyzed by applying the partial least squares regression models (PLS).In this study, first, the ecological footprint application and improvement research from domestic and foreign scholars were reviewed while comment and prospect were stated, and then, three research approaches (documentary research, quantitative analysis and regression analysis) as well as the technical route were identified. Second, the conceptions, the theory and the computing method of the ecological footprint relevant items and the status quo of Henan Province were introduced briefly. Third, the ecological footprint, the ecological capacity, the ecological deficit (or remainder), their corresponding per capita values and the ten thousand yuan GDP ecological footprint from1990to2010were evaluated, and on the basis of which, dynamic analyses were presented. Finally, by using the PLS, possible driving factors’impact on Henan’s ecological footprint were calculated and analyzed, and policy recommendations were proposed.In order to ensure the estimated values of ecological footprint relevant items more accurate and actual, in this dissertation, the non-agricultural population and the agricultural population were replaced by the urban population and the rural population. Meanwhile, the greenhouse-gas-absorbing capacity of the pasture was brought into the calculation of the fossil energy land, whereas the consumption and the production of beef and mutton were divided into arable land and pasture by a certain percentage. Moreover, agricultural products’ global average yield were calculated according to the data from FAO, to make sure they met the study period and to reduce the influence of the climate factor on the products in a single year.The results of the evaluation and the analyses indicated that the ecological footprint and its per capita value showed a significant rising trend, of which the fossil energy land contributed most; the ecological capacity and its per capita value went up steadily, deriving from the production of arable land; the differences of Henan’s annual ecological footprint and ecological capacity were all presented as ecological deficit, and the deficit and its per capita value kept climbing during the21years, showing that Henan’s development was relatively unsustainable. However, the ten thousand yuan GDP ecological footprint decreased gradually, indicating that the utilization efficiency of local resources and energy experienced an increase, thus, the ecological cost of Henan’s development dropped continuously. Among the driving factors of ecological footprint, GDP, the outputs of three industries and the per capita expenditure of urban and rural residents played positive roles, making great influences. Nevertheless, the rural population and the Engelian coefficient of rural residents had opposite impact on ecological footprint, whilst the total population and the Engelian coefficient of urban residents enhanced the ecological footprint comparatively slightly. Eventually, the policy recommendations in connected with the current situation of Henan Province were proposed that it was necessary to continue increasing the agricultural production, to develop the low-carbon economy, to control the population appropriately, and to promote residents’green and healthy lifestyle.