Analysis Of Influence Factors On Water Pollution In Erhai Basin Based On IPAT Model

Water is the core element of the ecology and environment systems and closely related to human life. However, with the development of social economy, water pollutant emissions continuing to increase, China’s water environment problems have become more serious. Erhai Lake is the second largest freshwater lake of Yunnan Province whose water environment is closely related to the local population and economic factors.The paper introduces the theory of sustainable development and recycling economy theory, then introduce IPAT model and its extended model. After that we use IPAT model analyze factors of water pollution during1999to2012based on empirical research model, and forecast water pollution situation in five years.Firstly, we employ Factor contribution model, making population, per capita GDP and technology as three factors of Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution, to analyze the contribution that three indicator bring to the water pollution. The result shows per capita GDP and technology level have a greater impact on water pollution, while population size has less impact; Secondly we use STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis, adding two factors, urbanization rate and industrial structure, based on the original three influencing factors, to make a further analysis and found that population size, per capita wealth, the industrial structure and technology level has a significant impact on water pollution, but the impact of population urbanization rate is relatively small. Finally we use IGT model to predict Erhai basin water contamination for the next five years, the result shows that the Erhai basin water pollution will be worse during the predicted period. To solve that problem we should strengthen technology innovation, using better technical means to reduce the emission of pollutants. While economy develops, we should take the protection of the water environment into account, making a "low pollution, low emission" model of development, and reduce water pollution improving the water environment of Erhai Basin.For the above findings, I put forward relevant suggestions on the Erhai Lake Basin Water Pollution Control at end of the article. The Erhai watershed should focus on coordinating the relationship between the economy development、population and environment, optimize the industrial structure, strengthen technology innovation, develop recycling economy, and from the government、businesses and residents three aspects together to make environmental protection of Erhai Lake Basin.