A Comprehensive Evaluation On Project Of Transformer Devices Reconstruction In FY Substation

With the rapid development of society and economy, the continuous and reliable power supply becomes necessary of the society. However, with the lapse of time, problems occur on transformer devices as aging and insufficient capacity, particularly in substations that have been in operation for a long period of time the contradiction between the power supply and high demand of society is gradually outstanding. Reconstruction of the old transformer devices is the most effective method to prolong the old substations’service life. After the reconstruction, old devices can be replaced by new ones, or be processed by novel technologies for delayed application. These methods will improve the reliability and the quality of the power supply. The old stations are always the center of load due to historical reasons. Since the load can’t be shifted to additional power grid, the stations should be constructed with a power supply simultaneously. A reconstruction project then has characteristics such as a short construction time, complex techniques and high security, which makes the project of high risk. Accordingly, it’s very necessary to have a firm evaluation of the risk. This paper introduces the basic theory of risk evaluation for transformer devices reconstruction project, based on which a risk evaluation system is established. Then ranking the risk by its severity through a hierarchical analysis method, and calculating various values of grayness by gray whitening function. Conclusions are finally drawn to attain a comprehensive evaluation. The reliability of the model is verified by using a project of transformer devices reconstruction of FY substation. A risk aversion strategy is also proposed according to the real situation...