Optimization Design Of Jinzhou South Highway Passenger Transport Hub Based On Demand Forecast

With the rapid development of the economy,people’s living standards are getting higher and higher,and the demand for passengers’ travel is also growing.Passenger traffic can directly reflect the level of national economic development and the quality of people’s life.At the same time,passenger traffic is also an important reference for performance evaluation of road transport organizations.Scientific and reasonable prediction of passenger traffic is of great significance to the planning and designing of hubs.Firstly,this paper classifies the bus passenger transportation hub and analyzes the mechanism of passenger flow formation in the bus passenger transportation hub and finds the influencing factors affecting the passenger traffic volume.This paper uses the multiple linear regression analysis method to determine the main factors affecting the passenger traffic volume.And it were divided into internal and external factors.Secondly,this paper introduces several commonly used methods for bus passenger traffic forecasting,including time series forecasting model,logistics model,grey forecasting model and neural network model.By analyzing the theoretical basis and model test of various forecasting methods to point out the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods in bus passenger traffic forecasting.After comparative analysis,this paper uses the gray prediction model to predict the passenger traffic volume of the Jinzhou South Highway Passenger Transport Hub.On the basis of the passenger volume of the bus,the hub will be designed from the daily average departures,the number of departures and the highest number of passengers.Finally,this paper takes Jinzhou South Highway Passenger Transport Hub as an example to verify the superiority of the passenger traffic forecasting model.After the residual test,the correlation test and the post.test difference test,the gray prediction model has good applicability and superiority in passenger traffic forecasting.According to the forecast results of passenger traffic,as of the design year 2027,the daily average shuttle bus of the Jinzhou South Highway Passenger Transport Hub reached 371 times/day,with a total of 27 parking spaces.It is of great practical significance to design the hub planning scheme based on the demand size.