Ningbo Port Sea-rail Transportation Volume Prediction Model Research With Consideration Of Economic Cycle

This paper firstly introduces the development of Ningbo Port and the industrial layout of Zhejiang province,thus proposed the significance of studying Ningbo sea-rail transportation volume forecasting model. When describing the operational status, there are two parts. One part is about the combined operation pattern of railway、custom、port、sea&rail logistics company such as Southeast logistics Co.,Ltd. and China container Co.Ltd. Another part is about the sea routes starting from Ningbo Port and their destination.This paper focuses on a linear regression relationship between Ningbo Port economic hinterland provinces’ GDP and their import and export volume of foreign trade.I find that they all have a significant linear correlation. By studying the the average GDP growth speed in the past decade than we forecast the coming5years,ie year2013-2017’s GDP.Next I use the multi-factor dynamic correlation coefficient method to estimates the container demand volume. Then I use the logit model to analyse how the transportation time and price influence the shipper’choices on inland transportation methods between river, road, railway. Considering the distribution influence of Xiamen, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other ports, I analyse and ascertain the ratio of the container demand volume going to Ningbo Port by rail. Because there is economic cycle, I give the result a rang to make it more reasonable.