The Safety Evaluation On Water Resources Of Liaoning Province

Water is the source of life，and it is important for production, the basic of ecology. Waterresource is the material basis of people’s life, the basic guarantee of national development, thefoundation of the social and economical sustainable development. All human social activitiesand economic activities depend on the water resources. Because it is located in the northeastof China, Liaoning province has the water shortage problem. The safety problems, such aswaste, life sewage, industrial and agricultural pollution, water shortages, which have beenaffected the social and economic sustainable development seriously in Liaoning province.Water resources security problem has become a bottleneck restricting the Liaoning Provincesocial economy sustainable development. Therefore, there is an important significance to givea comprehensive evaluation for Liaoning Province water resources safety status.First of all, based on the analysis of the water resources safety current status in LiaoningProvince, this paper select16evaluation indexes from three aspects, which are waterresources pressure, water resource status, water resources utilization to build contains threelevels of safety evaluation index system of water resources in Liaoning Province reasonably.In addition, this paper uses the statistical data of ten years between2000and2009ofLiaoning Province, and it uses the improved entropy value method to determine the indexweight, and it also evaluates the index system layer by layer by using variable fuzzyrecognition model. The results show that the water resource of Liaoning Province was facingseverer challenges, although its general situation had been improving slowly during theconcerned time. The system analysis of water resources security indexes indicated thatLiaoning Province water resource was facing great pressure, while the values of state andresponse indices were improving gradually.Secondly, this paper uses factor analysis to analyze the indexes of the social economyand the water environment in Liaoning province from the perspective of sustainabledevelopment. And we got the three potential factors affecting the safety of water resources,then analyze and evaluate them. The three potential factors are the utilization of waterresources supply and demand, the ability of ecology water environment pollutant carrying andself-clean, and social and economic development. It puts forward rational suggestions for therational use of water resources and optimal configuration in Liaoning province.Thirdly, to build a water safety warning system in Liaoning province, on the basis of greyforecasting GM (1,1) model, Equal dimensional and new information grey forecasting modelwas established, to forecast all the16indexes of water resources safety in Liaoning province in2013,2015, and2020. Then use variable fuzzy recognition model tocalculate the degree of security of this three years, which supply the basis for the Watersupply scheme of water resources in the future.Finally, according to the evaluation analysis and the forecasting results, give thecorresponding policy for ensuring the safety of water resources in Liaoning province from8aspects as follow：to establish and improve the policies and regulations; to strengthen lawenforcement；to control the water pollution; improving the water ecological environment; tointensify the building of water conservancy projects; to improve the utilization efficiency ofwater resources；to construct water-saving society；to adjust the economic layout, to optimizethe industrial structure；to take the market as the guidance, to establish reasonable water pricemechanism; to supply water by different quality; to strengthen the propaganda education, toimprove citizens’ consciousness of water-saving, environmental protection concept.