| Earth-rock dam is the fastest growing and most widely used in the world.According to the international organization of dam, there are800,000dam in the earth,95%is earth-rock dam.But in China the percent is closed to95%. Beside on theamount and the widely distributed of dam, this paper is study on earthquake disasterprediction, the content is:1. The earth-rock dam has an important part in the development of dam, combine withthe specialization in China. And when the dam suffered earthquake, the hazard mayinfluence on itself, else on the surroundings. So the earthquake disaster prediction ofdam has practical significance.2. By the data of seismic hazard of earth-rock dam in China, we content the maindisasters of the earthquake of it. The seismic damage inflecting factors of earth-rockdam are the type, the material, the base condition, construction quality, the water deepratio and the seismic intensity, which content by analysis these disasters.3. Set a standard, which used to quantize the seismic damage inflecting factor andgrade of earth-rock dam, which suffered earthquake. In this paper list104data of dam.The principle of sampling of dam is content by Tangshan and Tonghai.4. First build the multivariate regression model to forecast disaster of earth-rock damwhen the earthquake is coming, then on the principle of sampling to choose thesample, which used to calculate the index number of the multivariate regressionmodel, last the model is completed.5. The fuzzy relation between grade of seismic hazard and inflecting factor is contentby the statistic data of earth-rock dam, then build membership function about them,last obtain the fuzzy matrix.6. On the basis of the index number in multivariate regression model, used analytichierarchy press to content the weight set of earth-rock dam.7. By the fuzzy matrix and weight sets can obtain the comprehension evaluation of setof earth-rock dam, from which we can prediction the grade of seismic hazard whenthe dam suffer from earthquake. |
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