Research On Project Cost Assessment By SPA

The project is risky because of various uncertainty factors in internal and external that is influenced during the project implementation. The overrun of the project cost always exists, this is largely because the managers lack of the awareness of project cost risk management or underestimated the project cost risk. In this thesis, the project cost risk management research achievements of project cost management scholars at home and abroad is system analyzed and comprehensive summarized. Stand by the perspectives of the owner’s, this thesis studied the whole process of project cost risk from both theoretical and practical perspectives based on basic risk management theories and an example.At first, the WBS-RBS and Delphi method is selected through summarizing the commonly used risk identification methods. In this part, the project cost risk of each stage is comprehensively and systematically identified, the project cost risk assessment index system is set up, and all risk factors are analyzed in details.The second, the project cost risk assessment and decision-making method base on SPA is discussed. By using the SPA, a new improved AHP method—GSPA-IAHP is presented,the project cost risk assessment model based on SPA is set up by introducing IDO degree computing method, which is a single index based on linear change connection.Simultaneously, this part discussed the standard of project cost risk assessment.The third, the risk strategy and specific risk prevention measures are put forward aim at every project cost risk of each stage.Finally, a villa project is used as the example to demonstrate the whole process of project cost risk management. In this example, GSPA-IAHP is used to rank the project cost risk, the assessment model based on SPA is used to comprehensive assessment of risk factors of each construction stage and risk warning. Concluded from the above, the calculation process of SPA is clear and simple, therefore, SPA risk assessment model has broad application prospects. The example provides reference to similar project from theory and practice.