Study On Risk Analysis And Allocation In Large Municipal Road Of BT Mode

With the development of China’s urbanization, infrastructure is becoming increasingly important, but it is difficult to finance because of the heavy pressure on government debt, while the relatively new BT model aims to provide a new solution. But the relevant government departments have not yet introduced the relevant laws and regulations to restrict the BT investment model, so there are no specifications available for reference and it is also suffered from a question of "contract with own capital". Moreover, most of the BT projects are always large-scale and there are a number of participants involved in it, the external environment of these projects is complex and there are many risk factors. Therefore, it is particularly important for the participants involved in the BT project to do the work of risk management well. This article is studied against some problems existed in the above phenomena, in order to provide some reference and guidance about how to run the BT project normatively, and do the work of risk identification, evaluation and allocation better. The main study is as follows:1.Describe the problems of the BT model when applied in our country and the complexity and particularity of risk management, then introduce its connotation, characteristics and the operation process. Then, Summarize the applicability of BT mode by comparison with several other similar PPP financing models.2.After the introduction of the content and features of the common organization of the BT model, a number of criterions are proposed to analysis organization of the BT model legal or not accord with the laws and regulations.3.Based on the current study, the principles and flow diagram are proposed for risk allocation in order to solve the core problem of risk management that is risk allocation.4.By comparing the risk identification methods, I select one of them which is applicable in principle to the BT model, ie WBS-RBS method. Then the work and risk of main participants involved in the BT project are decomposed.5.Combined with the characteristics and requirements of the risk evaluation for BT project, I filter out ISM and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and use them together to the risk analysis and evaluation, because their advantages can complement each other. 6.Empirical Analysis on the following questions combined with Chengdu Tianfu Avenue South Extension project:Firstly, WBS-RBS method is used to identify the risk of main participants involved in this project and prepare the list of risk factors, then establish the evaluation index system. Secondly, the ISM and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are used together to analysis and evaluation, and their membership degree and risk weight are determined by the mean and AHP method. After the calculation and analysis, the risk structure graph, risk sequence and risk level are achieved. And the scientificalness of the evaluation method selected is proved by the actual situation of the project. At last, according to the principles and flow diagram for risk allocation, the risks of this project are allocated, and then some necessary instructions about it are made.