Quality Risk Of Railway Tunnel Construction Research Base On Gray Correlation Method And Interval Bayesian Model

Along with the development of society and economy, there are more and more large-scale construction projects which are in great investment, wide range effect and technical complexity involved. With the increasing complexity of construction project, factors that may affect the quality of construction project also increasing rapidly. This situation means that quality management in construction would be required a lot more attention. How to deal with risk issues during construction has already become the biggest challenge of quality risk management.The theoretical framework of this paper is based on project risk management theory. Through a two-step study of risk research ideas, combined with gray theory and interval Bayesian model, this paper made a research of quality risk management in large-scale construction base on a railway construction project.The lack of analysis data in large-scale construction project is a critical problem for quality risk management. The main work of the paper is about how to use gray theory and interval Bayesian model to identify, evaluate risk and make decisions in quality management of construction project. The reasons why use gray theory and interval Bayesian model are the follows, there is advantages in analyzing uncertainty problem by using gray theory, interval number can describe the uncertainty in risks, using the Bayesian probability may make the probability much closer to the actual situation. First, achieve the priority of risk factor which may affect the quality of a large construction project by using the gray correlation method to analyze the information of quality risk factor. Second, take the weights of risk factors which has been calculated in the first step into interval Bayesian model evaluating the quality risk of construction schemes. According to the calculation result, propose the advice for construction schemes choosing decision. In the end of the third and fourth chapter, there is a case study base on Nanning-Guangzhou railway construction project. The case study demonstrated the method’s effectiveness and reliability and also put up suggestions and guidance for quality risk management in a railway construction project. This article aims to build up an idea in quality risk management, which contains the overall risk identification and the actual risk assessment. With the combination of gray theory and interval Bayesian model, this research form a set of methods to help improve the performance of quality management in large-scale construction projects. Using the proper method to identify the quality risk during the construction may lead the project managers to focus on the critical part of quality control. Evaluating the risk of construction schemes by a proper risk index system would make the decision in quality risk control much wiser. In short, all these research aims to improve the validity and practicality of quality risk management. Expecting the theory model would make contribution to the risk management work of large-scale construction in our country.