Study On Traffic Evacuation Efficiency Evaluation Of Large-Scale Activity On Emergency

During large-scale activities, it often gathers a large number of people and vehicles in a short time. Once the hazardous emergency happened, the characteristic of concentrating in time and space of the traffic demand is particularly outstanding, which increases the pressure on urban traffic and the possibility of secondary events. In order to improve the ability of coping with emergencies and keep the emergency traffic evacuation process safe, it must be reasonably planning emergency traffic evacuation plan. How to select the optimal evacuation plan becomes a decision-making difficulty for emergency management department. To make a judgment on the merits of the evacuation plan, it is necessary to conduct a comprehensive and definitive evaluation of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency for plans. So this paper studies the index system of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency and evaluation methods under large-scale activity emergency.Firstly, based on the summary of domestic and international related achievements, this paper redefines large-scale activities and emergency, studies the connotation of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency, and summarizes the traffic characteristics, location characteristics and management characteristics of large-scale activities and the characteristics of emergencies.Secondly, the paper discusses the question of emergency traffic evacuation of large-scale activities, discusses the difference and the relation between large-scale activities evacuation and the general situation evacuation, analyses the emergency traffic evacuation process and the content constitution of emergency traffic evacuation plan, and studies the evacuation demand, the evacuation traffic flow and the traffic control measures. According to the analysis of the factors which may be effect evacuation efficiency, this paper builds up the index system of emergency traffic evacuation efficiency and gives the metrics of indexes. Combining the export scoring method, the information granularity and the rough set, the paper sets up the attribute reduction model of the information granularity and rough set, screen out11indicators, including evacuation risk, network connectivity.Lastly, using the theory of the existing evaluation, the paper improves the calculation of the judgment matrix, the relative importance of basis, the correctional procedure of the judgment matrix and the weight of the traditional AHP, combines with PPCE model to solve the subjective and objective weights of indicators, and designs the real coding based adaptive genetic algorithm (RAGA). So the generalized function evaluation model based on a combination of empowerment is built. In order to verify the practicability of the index system and evaluation model, this paper selects a virtual emergency traffic evacuation scenario of Wuhan Sports Center, uses Trans CAD as the simulation platform to get the flow distribution of the evacuation road network and related index numbers, and applies the MATLAB software to calculate the evaluation values. Comparing the emergency traffic evacuation efficiency values of plans, this paper can select the optimal plan.