Evaluation Of Water Resources Carrying Capacity In Leaps And Bounds

Xinjiang is a tyical Arid and Semi arid region in China, water resources is the key factor that restrict the sustainable development. Water resources safety is an essential premise to realize the green-health development. Through the study of water footprint of main crops in Xinjiang and the analysis of the water resources carrying capacity in the great-leap-forward development in Xinjiang, this paper discussed the way to enhance the carrying capacity of water resources in Xinjiang.It can provide the guidance and advice to efficiently use the water resources and the water-policy-making in the great-leap-forward development in Xinjiang.Through investigating the water resources utilization in the current ten years, this paper subdivided Xinjiang into four districts and subdivided the water resources into the blue water and the green water, using the CROPWAT8.0model, the paper calculated the main crops water footprint of the four districts in Xinjiang, including food crops of spring wheat and corn, economic crops of cotton and sugar beet, fruit crops of grapes and apricot. This paper also predicted the water demand of the agriculture, industry, living and ecology in the future years in Xinjiang. Then, base on the method of supply-demand balance,the paper objectively analyzed the water resources carrying capacity of every state of Xinjiang in the future years. Considering rationally use the water resources and improve the water resources carrying capacity of Xinjiang,the pater also discussioned how to effectively adjusted the crop planting structure,how to implement the virtual water trade strategy and how to achive optimal allocation of water resources in small-watershed.Results show that:the agriculture water has accounts for ninety percent of the total water resources utilization; the water resources utilization structure is very different among states of Xinjiang; the difference of blue water resources distribution and green water resources distribution among regions is significant;and basicly,the water resources is in the state of defict in every state during the period of leap-forward development in Xinjiang.From a regional perspective,South-Xinjiang、North-Xinjiang and East-Xinjiang have already have no advantage of bearing; the phenomenon of overload of water resources carrying capacity is serious in Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture,which is specifically shown by the water resources carrying capacity is more potential in the Aksu Administrative Offices in South-Xinjiang;the water resources carrying capacity has no advantage of bearing in Hotan Administrative Offices and Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture in South-Xinjiang、Altay Administrative Offices and Bayangol Mongol Autonomous Prefecture in North-Xinjiang and Turpan city and Hami city in East-Xinjiang; the water resources is in the state of very-shortage、the overload phenomenon of water resources carrying capacity is serious and the water resources is gradually dry up in Kashgar city and Bayangol Mongol Autonomous in South-Xinjiang、Tacheng district and Urumqi- Karamay-Changji Hui Autonomous Prefecture in North-Xinjiang、 Ili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture.In the great-leap-forward development in Xinjiang,the water resource utilization will be unsustainable,which will directly affect the healthy development of ecological environment in Xinjiang. To optimally allocate water resources and realize that the water-rich area supplying the water-lean region,Xinjiang must control the scale of development to some extent,and it is suggested that increasing the planting proportion of the crop which is high rate of footprint-economy output and implementing the virtual water trade strategy, In addition,it can be considered to take a fine model of water resources management, water rights system and strengthen the cooperation with Central Asia and other measures to enhance the efficiency of water resources utilization.Only in this way,can Xinjiang solve the uncoordinated situation between the water resources allocation and economic-social development in every state of Xinjiang, and alleviate the scarce contradiction between the water supply and the water demand.This paper provided a new train of thought for searching the optimal utilization pattern of water resources, and it also provide a new method for achieving the well balanced among the water supply, people consumption demand and environmental needs,and proect the economic-social sustainable development in Xinjiang.