Temporal Structure Of Beijing Urban Crime And Its Impact Mechanisms

The criminal in city is one of the most important problems of city public safety. One vital composition of modern city development is to keep a stable and safety situation of it. The rapid growing of economic, changing of urban industrial structure, adjustment of zoning and uninterrupted changing of spatial structure, Beijing as a capital city its urban criminal cases developed an obvious spatial characteristics and discipline. This research uses the110police data by the web of Beijing public security bureau data from the year2006to2012, combination with the spatial analysis tool’s analysis function in ARCGIS try to accomplish the Beijing criminal distribution changes with time. Then further concentrate on the impact factor with the time prediction and hot spot analysis to predict the future criminal spatial and number distribution. And given considerable commends to the Beijing urban criminal prediction according to the background and the impact factor.Some research found that according to the spatial distribution;①2006-2012Beijing’s overall urban criminal situation has been improved and the criminal spatial distribution shows as "small concentrate with more spot" and grow as some high criminal area in Beijing.②Beijing urban criminal cases have spatial bias and polarization characteristics, most of them gather at southeast and northwest.③Different cases has their own particularity, the spatial distribution differs significantly. Economic cases are more likely commit at financial centers, commercial outlets and large batch market. Burglary cases are more likely commit at suburban areas and urban fringe areas. Pickpocketing cases are more likely commit at transportation network.According to the time difference;①As the Olympic games and the ceremony of60years of founding of People Republic of China, the amount of criminal cases has been decreased.②Each kinds of cases changes different annually.③Beijing’s urban criminal has seasonal changes. According to the experience, the spring and summer are having a higher criminal rate than in autumn and winter.④In every kinds of cases, except pickpocketing cases and vehicle breaking cases happens more frequency in winter and spring other cases are concentrate at summer and winter. They are more likely happen at night.According to the impact factor, this research mainly concentrates on city ribbon, living environment, transportation nodes, floating population and safety to analysis the spatial distribution of urban criminal. In the same time, put more enthusiastic at average temperature, spatial holiday to affect the time difference. This research according to the hot spot analysis to discover the spatial distribution of Beijing criminal cases found that it is moving to southwest which could be the future criminal prevent area. Finally, give future comments for Beijing’s criminal prevention and control according to the improve city zoning, urban fringe area control and diverse geographical prevent and control.