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Study On The Relationship Between Demographic Structure And Industrial Upgrading In China

Posted on:2015-01-15Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:Q ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:2267330425482116Subject:Industrial Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
In the period of post-financial crisis, the global economic is in a recovery stage, and industries are also readjusting. Population, as a key factor affecting the economy, has a formative influence on the industrial upgrading. It can adjust the industrial structure and promote the industry development in height. In other words, population can push the industrial upgrading and help our economic out of the financial crisis. The main advantage of population in China is the number of labor. However, the phenomenon of China’s demographic dividend will disappear in2015, and China will shift from a country of labor surplus to labor shortage. This situation will limit China’s industrial upgrading. So we can not just focus on the population number any more. Through changing the each part of population structure, China’s population structure need be changed to match the level of industry, then promote China’s industrial upgrading.Therefore, this article will analyze the intrinsic relationship between demographic structure and industrial upgrading. Firstly, demographic structure is divided into four parts:population size, age structure, regional structure and educational structure. According to the existing data, this article will use the method of comparative analysis to explain the four characteristics of demographic structure. At the same time, the present situation of China’s industrial upgrading will be explained by the perspective of industrial structure and value chain. Secondly, combined with the existing research findings, the relationship of demographic structure and industrial upgrading will be analyzed in theory. Finally, through the demonstration of coupling coordination degree and Granger causality, this article will explain the relationship between demographic structure and industrial upgrading in the empirical analysis. Through the theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper concludes the following conclusions:the overall coupling coordination degree of demographic structure and industrial upgrading in China is high, but the coupling coordination degree of demographic structure and industrial upgrading in different area of China is still low. There are large differences between regions, especially in the Mid-West of China, demographic structure and industrial upgrading can not match well. According to the Granger causality, China’s demographic structure is the cause of industrial upgrading, but industrial upgrading is not the cause of demographic structure. Furthermore, the function between regional structure and the proportion of the third industry is obvious, but the function between regional structure and the proportion of the second industry is not obvious. Through the comparison of theoretical and empirical conclusions, China urgently needs the suitable demographic structure to push the industrial upgrading, and developing the tertiary industry vigorously can effectively promote the adjustment of the regional population structure.
Keywords/Search Tags:demographic structure, industrial upgrading, coupling coordinationdegree, Granger causality
PDF Full Text Request
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