Research On The Influence Of Population Structure And Human Capital On Industrial Structure Upgrading

Under the background of global aging,China's population structure is undergoing profound changes,and the current situation of China's industrial upgrading is not ideal.According to the law of demographic transition,it is expected that the population born during the "baby boom" period will enter an aging stage in 2025.China will face a deep-aged society,while the number of new born in China will decrease drastically.The fertility rate is facing a severe trend.The demographic transition will profoundly affect the supply of labor.As the supply and demand of the labor market is above the "Lewis turning point",it indicates that the labor cost advantage originally owned by China will gradually disappear,which means that the demographic dividend will gradually disappear.Creating a second-time demographic dividend,exploring human capital dividends,and increasing investment in human capital will increase the level of technological innovation and upgrade the industrial structure.Therefore,exploring the interaction law between population structure,human capital and industrial structure upgrading,and seeking its internal influence mechanism is in line with the realistic needs of China's population development and industrial structure upgrading.First of all,this paper first sorts out the relevant literature on the population structure,human capital and industrial structure upgrade,analyzes the inadequacies of the existing literature,and proposes the innovation of this paper.Secondly,it theoretically analyzes the influence mechanism between the three,including the demographic structure upgrade of industrial structure,the upgrading of human capital to industrial structure,and the synergy between population structure and human capital to industrial structure upgrading.Human capital has a regulatory role between the demographic structure and the upgrading of industrial structure.Then the fixed effect panel model is used to explore the impact mechanism between population structure,human capital and industrial structure upgrade.Then,under the premise of constructing three spatial weight matrices,the spatial correlation test of the industrial structure upgrade is carried out,which proves the necessity of using the spatial panel model in this study.At the same time,a series of spatial models are tested on the established spatial panel model.The representation of the Spatial Durbin Model is the optimal model for this study.The research proves that the demographic structure has a significant impact on the upgrading of industrial structure.The index of synthetic population structure variables has a larger weight in the old-age dependency ratio,which leads to the empirical results being more biased towards the old-age dependency ratio.Therefore,the population structure index is positively correlated with the industrial structure upgrade;The human capital stock has a significant positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure,and the spatial spillover effect is not significant;the heterogeneity of human capital,the interaction between population structure and human capital stock,the interaction between population structure and human capital heterogeneity versus industrial structure The upgrade has a significant negative impact,and the spatial spillover effect is also not significant.This proves that human capital has a regulating effect between population structure and industrial structure upgrading,accelerates the accumulation of human capital,breaks the level of human capital threshold,and reduces the heterogeneity of human capital.Sexuality has a strategic significance to the upgrading of industrial structure.Finally,on the basis of summarizing the full text,according to the influence mechanism of population structure,human capital and industrial structure upgrading,and the current situation of population structure and industrial structure upgrading,the relevant policy recommendations are put forward.The first is to develop the old-age industry and improve the consumption capacity of the elderly population;the second is to balance and improve the old-age security system to promote the vigorous development of the old-age industry;the third is to moderately adjust the family planning policy,fully nurturing the second demographic dividend space;and the fourth is to accelerate the accumulation of human capital.Break through the level of human capital threshold,reduce the heterogeneity of human capital,and strengthen the provincial cooperation of human capital;Fifth,continue to promote new urbanization and rationally guide the effective flow of labor.