Analysis And Research On The Declining Tend Of Human Mortality In American And Australia

Mortality has been a key topic concerned by demographers and sociologists, it interprets the changes in the structure and scale of human, also plays an essential role in improving the economy, welfare, living standards of the society. The law of mortality rate is an important indicator for some industries, such as life insurance or others. Accurately predicting the mortality rate is beneficial to people with pension plans, insurance companies reasonably designing life insurance products and extraction reserve, the Government making related policies, even for the sustainable development of society. In the modern time, human mortality presents declining trend by the time gradually. The aging of population is getting worse, the average of life expectancy increases, these results a clear downward trend of human mortality, but more death on elder age. Therefore, the study of mortality has a very important significance for the society and economy.The article collected the data of human mortality of the United States and Australia which were internationally recognized, modeled for short mortality data of different gender with the improved Lee-Carter model, estimated and fitted the law of human mortality by selecting the optimal nodes and parameters. First, comparative analysis is made to the observations and the fitted values of the human mortality of the United States and Australia with different sexual data from1980,1990and2009; Second, make analysis of the results of model fitting and find the respective characteristics in different circumstances, compare the similarities and differences; Third, predict the trend in2010based on the choice of the optimal model, estimate the data of1970,1960and1950, and do some comparative analysis in specific circumstances, and discuss applicability of the model in the short-term data and long-term data. After comparison, we can find the model forecast is much better on short-term data than that on the long-term data.Finally, based on results of the model analysis and realistic analysis, we can give some suggestion in improving human mortality in different circumstances.