Analysis Of The Impact Of The Decline In Mortality On The Personal Account Pension Gap

Dynamic changes in population mortality have led to changes in the life expectancy of the population,and changes will place new demands on institutional arrangements for policy development,particularly pensions,and generate financial pressure on unpredictable pension expenditures.China's mortality rate has dropped,the average life expectancy of the population has been prolonged,the degree of aging has deepened,and there has been an imbalance between the basic pension payment system and the change in mortality,which has led to a gradual increase in the personal account pension,which in turn has led to The personal account balance is unbalanced,and the government continues to pay the pension and generate a financial burden.This is precisely the serious problem that China is currently facing and the main issue discussed in the article.In order to better understand the impact of the decline in mortality on the personal account pension gap,the article mainly studies from the following aspects.First,the data on the mortality rate of different ages and genders registered from 1995 to 2017 obtained from the China Demographic Yearbook will be analyzed and predicted.For the observation year,the Lee-Carter model will be used to predict the true age of the year.Comparing the values with the predicted values,it is found that the prediction effect of the senior group is not good,and then the two-factor model is used to predict the mortality error of the two models.Finally,the two-factor model is used to predict the life expectancy of the retired people.Secondly,it analyzes the factors that increase the personal account pension gap caused by the aging population and the increase of life expectancy caused by the decline in mortality,as well as the micro factors such as employment age,retirement age,contribution rate and rate of return.The actuarial model of the urban employee's personal account pension gap,according to the above two-factor model to find the life expectancy for employees of different retirement ages,estimate the calculation of the model parameters,determine the different impacts of the changes in the impact parameters on the gap,find Suggestions related to reducing the personal account pension gap.The main conclusions of the article are as follows:(1)The reduction of population mortality brings about changes in the ageing structure,prolongs the life expectancy of the population,and increases the personal account pension gap.The female gap is larger than the male gap.This is because women's Lower retirement age and higher life expectancy.(2)The flexible retirement system can be implemented,and at the same time,the setting of the number of months to be issued,the reform of the personal account calculation method,and the expansion of investment channels to make the pension fund have a higher rate of return,etc.,can reduce the personal account pension gap.