The Study On Synthesis Evaluation Index System Of The Middle-income Trap And The Empirical Analysis Of China

The world bank put forward the concept of "middle-income trap" in EAST ASIANVISIONS: Perspectives on Economic Development in2006for the first time. Thenpeople introduce the concept into the theory of development economics, refers to acountry in the middle-income stage undergoes a long-term stagnation in the level ofdevelopment due to the economic, political, social, strategy, policy or some otherfactors.GNI Per Capita in China reached$4230in2010. According to the standards ofthe world bank, China has entered the upper-middle income stage. And is facing a testof the so-called "middle-income trap". So it has an important theoretical and practicalsignificance to establish a reasonable index system, and analyze the current situationin China.In this paper, by building the theoretical system and making empirical test,weformed a evaluation index system of the problem of "middle-income trap", fromwhich the characteristics of the countries who fell into the trap. Then we made anempirical analysis of the current situation in China. In this research we used themethod of nonparametric test in the process of building the index system, and themethod of discriminant to analyze the possibility of falling into the "middle-incometrap" of China.Through the research and practice, this paper obtained the conclusion that"middle-income trap" is a problem about the economic development in essence ratherthan the economic growth simply. The index system is established by two steps. First,we established a preliminary index system refer to the research achievements ofexisting literature. Then eliminated the nonsignificant variables by analyzing thesample data. Finally formed a comprehensive and effective index system. This indexsystem includes10variables in four aspects which included the economic growth andincome distribution, industrial structure, social development and the vulnerability offinancial system.27sample countries were classified into three categories and established discriminant model in empirical analysis. According to the results of themodel, China belongs to the group of countries who fell into the "trap" slightly. Thissuggests the risk of China of falling into the "middle-income trap". By comparingwith the high-income countries, we found the weakness of China mainly from theproduction efficiency of agricultural, innovation ability, the income distribution gap,corruption and urbanization level. To solve these problems, this paper puts forwardthe corresponding countermeasures and suggestions at last.