Research On Mechanism About Chinese Ageing Population To The ‘Middle-Income Trap'

Economic development achieve the average income level while China's population structure step in aging soon.It is the reason why aging population is put forward with the "middle-income trap" in front of us,which will be Issues worthy of attention in the future development.For the most developing countries,although these problems will happen in the future,it is necessary to make scientific decision,response positively and absorb the experience of countries that across the "middle-income trap" successful,And while preparation should be done to cope with the challenge of an ageing population.This paper firstly put "middle-income trap" into the analysis framework of the existing economic growth,and make summary of the research results about the impact of population aging on economic growth.On this basis,variables about the population aging-the elderly dependency ratio and young children's dependency ratio are introduced into the traditional economic growth model.Through a series of model derivation,the result shows that there is a negative correlation relationship between economic growth and population aging finally,which means ageing population in a certain extent hinders the economic growth.On the basis of the theory,the empirical analysis about the influence mechanism of China's ageing population on economic growth is made byusing the vector error correction model and the time series data,and the result shows that demand for labor,human capital and savings will impact on economic growth.Reach the following conclusions:(1)By the education level and per capita savings rate was positively correlated with economic growth;An aging population,per capita real output and the sum of depreciation rate and natural population growth rate showed a negative correlation relationship.(2)An ageing population by influencing the labor supply,saving,and human capital will affect "middle-income trap".Finally,on the basis of the research conclusion,in order to reduce the ageing of China's successful across the impact of the "middle-income trap",put forward the following suggestions:(1)To promote the development and progress of science and technology,reduce the role of labor force in economic growth.(2)Increasing aging industry development,looking for a new economic growth point.(3)Improve the efficiency of investment transformation,further perfect the social security system.(4)Increase investment in human capital,and fully exert the role of human capital in economic growth.