The Study Of Crossing The Middle-Income Trap In China

In 1978,China implemented the great strategy of reform and opening up,and shocked the whole world by developing the economy from a new white paper into a blueprint of the symbol of The Times.The smooth implementation of family planning,make the country's population structure in the state of high middle and low at both ends of fusiform,spindle prominent part is among working-age population,it accounts for larger proportion of the total population in is called the "demographic dividend".Increasing along with the economic development,our country may be facing the vast majority of developing countries are possible problems-"middle-income trap" could be a barrier to sustainable development for our future economy.At the end of 2012,China's working-age population is more than 93000,2011 people from dropped at the end of 2011,this is our country labor population fell for the first time since a long time,means that China's demographic dividend may slowly reduce or disappear,thus caused wide attention of scholars.If in this period of demographic dividend is about to disappear,not properly handle the various social,economic and development in our country and the relationship between the population,so,our country is likely to fall into the middle-income trap.Middle-income trap refers to a country or area in a certain stage of economic development,unable to realize the reasonable transformation of the economic or lack or loss of capacity for independent innovation,lead to economic development,and formed a kind of sluggish economic development state.Our country is in an important period of social transformation,social contradictions multiple,decrease labor force,total dependency ratio increase,relatively heavy burden on society,demographic dividend disappear led to increasing aging population will impact on sustainable economic development of the future of our country is to be reckoned with.Therefore,this article from the perspective of population,and through the demographic dividend opportunity window opening and closing time of prediction as well as to the empirical study of Chinese specific economic development indicators,to analyze our country will fall into the middle-income trap,and then puts forward the macro approach for reference.If the demographic dividend is to be discussed,it is bound to involve the opening and closing time of the demographic window.In the 1980s,the demographic dividend appeared on China's land and became a pillar of China's rapid economic development.However,this important development momentum will gradually disappear with the change of population structure,social progress and economic development,and eventually become "population liability".China's rapid economic growth in the past,known as the "China miracle",relies heavily on the rich and cheap labor force,the demographic dividend.At present,China's population aging,declining fertility,total dependency ratio increased year by year,and a series of cases,not only to keep the pace of economic growth,more should grasp the good development opportunity,achieve high income level.In this process,how should China adjust and transform its economic development in order to avoid falling into the middle-income trap?Will the benefits of demographic dividend fade with the closing of the demographic window?How to make full use of the demographic dividend to avoid falling into the middle-income trap?Can the concept of demographic dividend.be viewed from a more in-depth perspective?This is the question that Cheng is about to discuss.There are five chapters in this paper.The first chapter introduces the purpose and significance of the research.Secondly,this paper summarizes the previous studies on the relationship between demographic dividend and middle-income trap,and puts forward some views on some of them.Finally,the research methods,ideas and structure are introduced.The second chapter is about the demographic transition in China at various stages in the analysis of the demographic dividend change an overview in China since the founding of the first demographic transition phases,which summarizes its characteristics,then use PADIS software to forecast the population status of the next 30 years,so as to estimate the opening and closing time of demographic window of opportunity in our country,finally clarify the demographic dividend will not only for our country brings opportunities and challenges.The third chapter using the Solow Growth Model for middle-income trap in our country have an empirical analysis on the problems and draw the conclusion:at present our country has not yet been falling into the middle-income trap,but still need to be vigilant in the process of development in the future.The fourth chapter is the effect of the disappearance of the demographic dividend on the middle-income trap in China,which is expounded from the microcosmic enterprises to the macroscopic social and economic aspects.The fifth chapter is the full text of the last chapter,from the perspective of demographic dividend to analyze how to avoid falling into the middle-income trap in our country,including three aspects:to human capital,digging huge elderly population potential dividends and adjust the population policy.Finally,I hope that through this article research on population and economic problems for the current and future economic development to provide some useful reference for,the second child policy after the operation of population development.direction has the certain reference and enlightenment.