The Influence Of The Demographic Dividend To Economic Growth In Gansu Province

Based on the understanding of the demographic dividend and demographic dividend period, at first, the change of population age structure and the dependency ratio in Gansu province was analyzed. Then, the paper use Sixth census data in Gansu province as samples to LESLIE model. The total population and the population age structure forecasted by population prediction program compiled with Matlab software. So, demographic dividend period in Gansu province determined by integrating the actual situation of population development in Gansu province and the demographic transition theory. Demographic dividend period opens in Gansu province in1987, until2030, lasts about43years. Second, the transmission mechanism of the impact of demographic dividend to economic growth analyzed from the perspective of labor, savings and consumption. And empirically test the impact of demographic dividend to economic growth in Gansu province. The impact contribution rate of demographic dividend to economic growth in Gansu province is estimated by the contribution rate model, which established by the standard population comes from Swedish population life table in1957. Compared with the national and each province, Gansu province has made certain achievements on the absorption of demographic dividend, but still below the national average. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical test, the paper proposed some countermeasures and suggestions based on the perspective of demographic dividend to deal with the situation that how to respond to demographic dividend disappear and make full use of demographic dividend to promote economic development at present.