Research Of The Economic Regrowth Of The Saturated City

In the Fifth Party Congress and the first convention of the Fifth National People’s Congress,Shenzhen set the target of GDP to1.5trillion by2015.Whether and how to make it, immediatelybecame a hot topic for all citizens, government, business and academic circles. To this end, thispaper analyzed the historical trajectory, current situation and environment of Shenzhen’seconomic growth; combed both the favorable and unfavorable factors inside and outside whichare related to economic growth; measured the potential for sustained economic growth during acertain period of time (5-10years) in the future by applying the regression models and scenarioplanning method; studied and evaluated the possibility to reach the settled target, the super-pathscope to go beyond and even the surpassing route; and proposed countermeasures accordingly, inorder to provide support for the government to optimize public strategies and policies. The mainconclusions of this study are as follows: The GDP of Shenzhen to reach1.5trillion by2015is anattainable goal under normal circumstances, but in view of Competitive pressure and futureuncertainty,the government needed to strive for a better future but also prepare to respond to therisk scenarios; the countermeasures to promote the growth of Shenzhen’s economy and mine thegrowth’s potential to a maximum degree are to expand the internal and external demand,optimize the industrial structure, improve the output efficiency, cultivate new growth points andso on. Whether Shenzhen and all other intensive cities can continue to achieve high economicgrowth, finally lies in whether they can obtain a significant innovative breakthrough, switchingfrom the growth by increasing the input to an effective growth drivened by innovation.