The Study Of The Problem For The Time To Activate The Contingency Plans For The Supply Chain Corporations

Nowadays, emergencies always happen and business competition is very fierce,more and more corporations’ managers start to pay attentions to emergencies managementfor companies. Facing emergencies, in order to reduce loss, managers always try to findthe best strategies to cope with emergencies, and the contingency plan is one of the mostordinary method in dealing with unexpected events. However, when to activatecontingency plans is the key point for corporations to deal with unexpected events. Thestudy of when to activate contingency plans for unexpected events not only hastheoretical significance, but also has practical value for improving response level andreducing personnel and property losses caused by emergencies.This paper is mainly about when to activate contingency plans for unexpected eventsfor corporations under partial information and the lasting time of emergencies beingcontinuous distribution. It gives a method of multiple experts to activate contingencyplans. It creatively puts experts’ suggestions in the process of decision, and view relativerobust CVaR(RCVaR) as the decision goal to study when to activate contingency plansfor supply chain companies. It founds RCVaR models for different cases, and analyzes theinfluences of loss of per unit time and cost of activating contingency plans for the time ofactivating contingency plans by simulations.It finds that single company, supply chain corporation and competitive supply chaincorporation have similar disciplines for when to activate contingency plans under thesame conditions. With the addition for loss of per unit time, the time of activatingcontingency plans reduce. When the loss of per unit time is very big, it should activatecontingency plans at once. With the addition for cost of activating contingency plans, thetime of activating contingency plans increase. When the cost of activating contingencyplans is very big, it will never activate contingency plans. Because supply chain companyand competitive supply chain company can receive different support from othercompanies, but the single company will receives no support from others. In the samecondition, the competitive supply chain company will activate contingency plans in theshortest time, the supply chain company next, and the single company will activatecontingency plans at the latest time. At the same time, the intensity of competitionbetween supply chains will influence of the time of activating contingency plans. Themore intensity of competition, the shorter time of activating contingency plans is. The research finds that CVaR model can deal with contingency experiences from multipleexperts, and it can provide support for the decision makers in the process of decision.