Analysis On The Population Age Structure In Trade Imbalance

Since2002the16th National Congress of Communist Party of China put forward the slogan of "keep the balance of international payments" as our macro-control’s main target frist time, we have put the basic balance of international payments as a national economic and social development’s main goals for many years.And In-depth study of international payments balance of payments imbalances and the strengthening of the regulation are become a urgent mission of us. According to the Lifecycle Model of France Modigliani and Brumberg, the Population age structure can effect the foreign trade balangce through savings rate. So in this paper, we focus on the effect of Population Age Structure on Trade Imbalance seems meaningful very much, especially for the china which have the foreign trade dependency of65.3%.This article analysis the relationship of Population Age Structure and Trade Imbalance from three aspects.The first aspect, on the basis of the summary of theory and research, we summarize the transmission mechanism between Population Age Struction and Trade Imbalace from Micro-Macro two different views. Second aspects, based on the explanation of169Countries’PVAR Model, we research the dynamic relationship of Population Age Struction, Trade Imbalace and Economic Growth Quantitativly.Third aspect, using the data of China and the United States from1985-2010as example, we constructed a multiple linear regression equation, and analysis the factors of Population Age Structure effect on the Trade balance between Sino-USThe results show that, the relationship between the Population Age Structure and Trade Imbalance is negative and unidirectional, the coefficient of secondary is-0.0001531, and when come to the period of20, the Population Age Strnction will take the6.693%effect of Trade Imbalance’s diversification.In the example of Sino-Us trade situation, the Population Age Structure of China has negative impact on Trade Imbalance of Sino-Us, but the Population Age Structure of America play the positive parts. And the same time, the more similar the type of Population Age Structure two country are, the lower probability the tade imbalance will be. With the demographic transition in China and the United States, we hold the idea that China will lose its trade benefit because of the Aging of population, the margin of Sino-US trade balance will be dispeard or deflation.According to the results, we should emphasis on the role of Population Age Structure, help China to get full access use of structural advantage bought by the population age structure changes, and promote the economic growth of China more fastly and Continuly.