An Research Of The Village-Level Debt From The Perspective Of Debt Risk

In China’s rural areas, village-level debt is a significant problem since the late1980s, the period of reform and opening up, and is soaring along with China’s rural economic reform process, which is recognized as an unrest element for our country’s rural social development. The research of the village-level debt has very important practical significance and theoretical significance to the maintenance of social stability in rural areas and the promotion of new rural construction. Over the past decade, the domestic scholars on village-level debt problem have undertaken extensive research, and achieved fruitful achievements. The state and government also have taken a lot of positive measures to solve the problem, the main idea of which can be summarized as:to ban new debts and to repay old debts. However, seeing the work progress in recent years, old debts still exist in most parts and new debts continue to occur. And in some areas the debt stock has the rising trend. Faced with this situation, people can’t help but begin to doubt the effectiveness of the work which has been conducted. Debt management is into the bottleneck stage, and management work is in trouble.In this historical context, the author has analyzed the reasons of the trouble, and after that, who believes that the current plight of village-level governance has certain illusion and the point of resolving the plight is to correct the bias of people’s understanding to the village-level debt in order to break the illusion. Therefore, the overall goal of this study is introducing the concept of risk to break the illusion, optimizing the method of judging village-level debt situation, and giving the more rigorous identification of the effectiveness of debt management, based on the recognized the legal status of village-level debt. This study emphasis on the measurement methods of comprehensive evaluation of village-level debt risk and the governance performance of main measures, so as to provide scientific and reasonable reference for relevant departments and organizations at the grass-roots level while making decision and taking management of the village-level debt problem. The text is divided into six chapters, and the main research contents and conclusion statements are as follows:Part1:analysis of the reason of the current village-level debt management troubleIn this paper, through analyzing the reasons of the trouble, get the following two basic ideas:First, in recent years, the fundamental reason of the village-level debt problem is not resolved is that forcing the occurrence of village-level debt regardless of the realistic situation and the objective need of the rural area is very unrealistic and unscientific. The corresponding, the acceptance predefined ideal goal of village-level debt management work is unrealistic; Second, the widely used standard of village-level debt situation judgments lacks of scientific, and then leads to the biased judgments of the effectiveness of village-level debt management. In addition, the method of judging the effectiveness of village-level debt management is still limited to a simple qualitative judgments, lacking of scientific and rigor empirical evidence. Therefore, the author thinks that the current plight of village-level debt governance has certain illusion.Part2:comprehensive evaluation of village-level debt riskThe article constructs a village-level debt comprehensive risk evaluation index system, including short-term debt pressure, long-term debt pressure, actual debt paying ability, debt structure risk and the influence to farmers. Then by using data of Jiangsu province and principal component analysis, designs a quantification model of village-level debt risk which is suitable for Jiangsu Province. On this basis, the article makes a judgment of the debt situation and regional differences of Jiangsu province village in recent years. The results show that:from the perspective of debt risk, the village-level debt situation of Jiangsu province village continues to take a turn for the better in recent years, although the whole and local village-level debt is rising.Part3:research on the governance performance of village-level debt management measuresThis article chooses village account agent system, democratic financial management system, village affairs public system and cadres’ responsibility and outgoing auditing system which are widely adopted in China’s rural areas as the main objects of the study of the governance performance of village-level debt management measures. By using the data of Jiangsu Province and Panel Data fixed effects model the author has made an empirical test on the performance of these four measures, and the study found that:first, village affairs public system village affairs system is relatively significant on the village-level debt management performance; and then, cadres’ responsibility and outgoing auditing system also plays a significant role on the village-level debt management performance on the condition that the auditing item is effective; the last, village account agent system and democratic financial management system relatively have little effect on the village-level debt management performance and lack of constraint capacity on village-level debt risk, and the lack of the softening of binding mainly derives from that the objective conditions do not meet the need and the operating acts non-standard in the actual execution process.According the above results, we recommend the following suggestions:strictly control the generation of unreasonable debt; maintain the debt risk staying a tolerance low level; continue to adhere to village affairs public system; strengthen the cadres’ responsibility and outgoing auditing system; improve the village account agent system; optimize the democratic financial management system.