Research About The Driving Force On The Quantitive Changes Of Cultivated Land In Yangcheng County

Cultivated land was the most important resource of agricultural production. With the speeding procedure of urbanization and industrialization, cultivated land had been gradually decreased duo to a great deal of construction and consequently threats the food security of our country. Yangcheng County was under the jurisdiction of Jincheng City. Relying on its abundant mineral and tourism resources, the social-economy had been rapidly developed but consequently destroyed the local land resources and ecological environment. In order to make effective policy on land use and guarantee the sustainable development of Yangcheng County, it was fully necessary to study the driving forces on land use changes.According to land use and social-economic statistical materials, this paper analyzed the quantitive change of cultivated land and social-economic development of Yangcheng County. Then analyzed the driving forces on that changed qualitatively and quantitatively and also builded a multiple linear regression model on cultivated land change of Yangcheng County. On the basis of that model and the social-economic development goals confirmed by "The twelfth five-year planning of Yangcheng national economy and social development", we predicted the amount of cultivated land of Yangcheng County in2020. Comparing that prediction with the cultivated land protection goal confirmed by "The general land use planning of Yangcheng County (2006-2020)", we made several countermeasures on cultivated land protection and therefore provided basis for the establishment of land use policy and social-economic development planning.Conclusion:(1) The cultivated land of Yangcheng County was generally decreasing with an annual speed of0.16×103hm2(0.42%of cultivated land in2010) and a reduction amplitude of0.39%between1996and2010.(2) The factors of population and the proportion of the added value in primary industry went downward but the factors of GDP, per capita GDP, economic density, per capita occupancy of grain, investment in the fixed assets, the proportion of non-agricultural population and the proportion of primary industry labor went integrally up. (3) The main factors which influenced the quantitive changes of cultivated land of Yangcheng County in1996-2010were general population, GDP, per capita occupancy of grain, investment in the fixed assets, the proportion of non-agricultural population and the proportion of the added value in primary industry. The contribution of these factors on cultivated land was89.57%.(4) The multiple linear regression model on predictive value of cultivated land of Yangcheng County in2020was: y=106.804-1.612X,-0.019X2-0.006X5+0.012X6-0.344X7+0.280X8...