A Study On Cultivated Land Use Change And Its Driving Force Of Jinan City

Human survival and development of land is the most important resource of mankind's most valuable asset of particular importance. Cultivated land resources, as the essence, is the most important means of agricultural production, but also protect the land ecosystem stability and the basis for optimization.From 1996 to 2006 in Jinan City, the rapid economic development, urbanization is accelerating, during the land from the space and the number of significant changes have taken place. In this paper, a lot of reading the literature and to draw the land and its driving forces on the basis of research results in Jinan City, three land-use maps, Jinan City, such as maps and slope maps and land use in Jinan City, the year of change data, community statistics as a basis for economic development research data to ArcView3.3 software as a means of space and size of the analysis from 1996 to 2006 in Jinan and the spatial distribution of cultivated land, and from nature, economy, population, transportation and policy factors point of view of changes in driving forces of cultivated land. Finally, respectively, the gray prediction model and a new round of Jinan, Jinan, land use planning forecast of cultivated land in 2020, and the article concludes with a realistic land protection measures. Through the above analysis the following conclusions can be drawn:(1) Ten years of Cultivated Land experienced a slow decline and then increased slowly, and finally to the rapid decrease of the three processes, changes in the rate of cultivated land areas are quite different city areas and the maximum variation of the flyover zone, Zhangqiu the smallest change of cultivated land.Cultivated Land to -0.3% average annual rate of change, of which City bridge area of cultivated land area and the maximum rate of change, the minimum rate of change Shanghe County. Structural changes of cultivated land can be divided into two phases: 1996 -2 004 years, little change between the various types of land are basically stable; 2004 - 2006 Structural changes of cultivated land is relatively clear, the proportion of irrigated land rose by 5.7 percentage points, dry down 4.8 percentage points. Classification of all land in the districts of big changes.(2) Years the amount of cultivated land into a quite different turn, turn out to be significantly greater than the amount of cultivated land into the volume, turn out some of the major into construction land and woodland as well as water, transferred from the unused part of the main land development and construction of land reclamation. Significant changes in land geographical differences: between 1996 to 2001 showed changes in the central and northern areas of cultivated land dense, scattered distribution in other regions; from 2001 to 2006 five years before the land distribution and transfer of some changes, changes in land distribution tends to be dense, central and southern parts of the highest concentration.(3)The correlation analysis, spatial analysis, and qualitative description of changes in land obtained by the economic, demographic, and policy changes of slope degree. Gray prediction model forecasts to 2020 to reach 352,443.87 hectares of cultivated land, under the constraints in planning to reach 365,845.00 hectares.In view of Cultivated Land Protection pressure, Finally, the legal, administrative, economic and technological protection of farmland, raised four levels of effective measures.