Comprehensive Evaluation And Coordination Analysis For Urbanization And Energy Consumption In Shandong Province, China

21st century is featured by the century of the city， which also apply tochina.The developments of cities have already become the key point to achieve thefull development of china society. Joseph Eugene Stiglitz， the2001Nobel Economicprize winner， admits that the problems of urbanization have topped the threechallenges China met in21st century. Urbanization in china is developing with plentyproblems， and has a gloom future.The energy source is foundation of the modern world， which supply thenecessary material to the daily life and the industrial production， ensure the normaloperation of the modern world.While， as the social development move on，thescarcity of the has become a outstanding issues，energy source has already limitedthe social development， and produce more effect on the environment as moresource consumed.Urbanization development and energy consumption influence each other.Generally speaking， the faster city developing， the more energy needed， andsupply become more important. On the other hand， the scarcity of the energysupply， together with the unscientific structure of energy usage will pull the legs ofthe urbanization.At present， the urbanization is in a swift growth period， necessaryrequirement on energy source will increase at the same time. In this period， if thegovernment make the policy not based on the overall consideration of the energysource and urbanization， will lead to a large-scale waste of the resource and leavefuture trouble to the urbanization development.Under this background， the focus and research on the relationship betweenurbanization and energy resource consumption structure is of great theoreticalsignificance and academic value， will offer valuable reference to the policy made ondevelopment of cities and the adjustment on energy resource consumption structure.With the consideration of the great difference of the urbanization and energy resourceconsumption in different areas， most research on this issue took a wide viewingangle and less focus on certain area. So this paper took a narrow view and chose theShandong province as the study sample. The research mainly focuses on theurbanization development， the energy resource consumption and the coordinationbetween them， in order to summarize Shandong strategic direction for energy andgive some valuable advices to the Sustainable and healthy development of urbanization.The paper contains six parts. Part one is introduction which explains researchbackground， research purpose， significance， related research status at home andabroad， research methods， thesis structure and the innovation and shortcoming ofthesis and so on. Part two describes the related theories about urbanization and energyconsumption. Part three， covering the period from1978to2008， use the principalcomponent analysis method to evaluate comprehensively the general situation ofurbanization and energy consumption of Shandong province respectively. Part fourmakes the integrated use of the entropy change equation method and the statecoordinating degree function method to analyze the coordination betweenurbanization and energy consumption in Shandong province and therefore get thestatic and dynamic coordination relationship of them. Part five uses the time seriesregression， the ordinary least square method and other empirical methods to predictthe level of urbanization and the energy demand along with the process ofurbanization in Shandong province. Part six is a summary of the whole work， andputs forward relevant policy suggestions according to the research results.The main conclusions are as follows. First， urbanization and energyconsumption level show a general upward trend，but from the point of increasing ratethe urbanization exhibits a certain stage， and the level of energy consumption is notstable. Second，based on the findings，it shows that during the investigation period，urbanization and energy consumption had been in the state of coordinateddevelopment for14years， in basic coordination state for10years， in fairlyuncoordinated state for the rest about6years. Third， through the using of statecoordinating degree function method， in static coordination aspect the relationshipbetween them has a certain amount of volatility， and in dynamic coordinationaspect， taking1992as a turning point， before this time it had been in a highlycoordinated state and after in a downward trend. Fourth， in2015the level ofurbanization will reach47.12%and the total energy consumption663million tons ofstandard coal， which is about2.8times the energy consumption of2005; in2020thelevel of urbanization will reach54.04%and the total energy consumption665milliontons of standard coal， which is about2.82times the energy consumption of2005.As policy suggestions， this paper points out that the government shouldimprove the utilization quality of energy and at the same time it should appropriatelycontrol the urbanization speed to maintain coordinated development betweenurbanization and energy consumption. With the impact of urbanization developmenton industrialization， the government should actively adjust industrial structure andproduct mix to make an evaluation towards more conducive to energy saving andenvironmental protection and at the same time establish a resource-savingurbanization model.