Research On The Consumption Demadn Analysis And Forecasting Of Energy In China

Energy is one of the material bases of the survival of human society. It is an important material resources of economic development and social progress, it is also an important strategic materials related to the lifeline of national economy and national security. Energy plays a pivotal role in the process of modernization. In today's world, many countries regard energy strategy as important component of economic development strategy. As the world's largest developing country, China is also the world's second largest energy producing and energy consuming country. Facing the rapid development of industrialization, energy problem is increasingly becoming a bottleneck for China's development. Understanding correctly the international background of our country's energy development, grasping scientifically the history and current situation of China's energy development, these are prerequisites for the further research on China's energy strategy and policy issues. Analyzing and forecasting our country's energy consumption demand scientifically have great significance to formulate correct energy development plan, promote the development of China's economy rapidly and healthy, realize the grand strategic objectives, and build a conservation-oriented society and a harmonious society.This paper discusses the energy and related theories. On the basis of analyzing the current situation of our country's energy consumption demand, this paper analyses the factors which influence China's energy consumption demand from both the qualitative and quantitative angles. Then, various kinds of quantitative forecasting methods are used to forecast the total amount and structural trends of our country's energy consumption demand from the year 2010 to 2020. Finally, China's energy development strategy and countermeasures are proposed.This paper first defines the definition and classification of energy, the relationship between energy and economic Growth and relevant energy forecasting concepts are also expounded. Second, this paper analyses the status of China's energy demand systematically from the aspects of China's total amount and structure of energy consumption, and the energy consumption and structure of three industries. Through qualitative analysis of the various factors which affect energy consumption demand, primary variables are selected to establish the co-integration model and error correction model of our country's energy consumption demand, then the impacts on energy consumption demand of every variable are analyzed quantitatively. Third, co-integration model, trend prediction model, grey system model, combination forecasting model are used comprehensively to predict the total energy consumption demand of our country systematically and roundly. Then, the method of spherical projection transformation is used to forecast the future trends of energy's consumption demand structure. Finally, some practical strategies and policies of our country's energy development are proposed.