Research On The Comprehensive Evaluation Of Risk For Shipyard Orders

With the development of world economy and international trade, shipping industry has beendeveloping rapidly. China shipbuilding factory seize the opportunity, at the same time it isalso faced with all sorts of risks. The risk of the orders is more significant for the survivaland development of shipbuilding factory among the risks. This is because when decisionmakers make decisions, it determines the direction and the proportion of large funds, oncethe decision-making is mistaken, it will cause immeasurable impact and losses to theenterprise. In addition, the future market situation is not determined in this time, so theshipyard also can not accurately grasp policies and regulations, technical conditions,material supply and other factors, Therefore, compared to other stages, orders are moreuncertain at this stage, it is precisely because of these uncertain at this stage having not yetbeen demonstrated, this stage is the most advantageous stage of risk control andmanagement. In order to avoid the great loss caused by mistakes in decision-making, theshipyard must make an accurate evaluation of risk before construction.Firstly, this paper combed the domestic and foreign research results of order risk.Around the time, cost and quality of the three major objectives of risk management andCharacteristics of shipyards`order, it integrated the order risk factors and put up with threerisk levels, supplier’s risk, shipbuilding factory’s risk and ship owner’s risk. On this basis,the author defined the measurement index of each factor and combined with the principle ofthe index system, established the index system of shipbuilding orders risk.Secondly, based on the characteristics of shipbuilding factory orders, the evaluationindex of risk and their respective standards, the author divided the overall risk level and therisk level of evaluation index.Again, the author introduces the unascertained theory and based on unascertainedmeasure theory built an evaluation model of shipbuilding factory`orders risk. Thedetermining of the weights lay on the comparing of subjective weighting method andobjective weighting method. This paper chose weighting method-entropy method which ismore objective to judge and calculate the index weight and used the credible degreeidentification method of level spatial segmentation to identify the level of risk.Finally, this paper studied pre–orders of a shipyard. By the case it verified theeffectiveness and operability of unascertained measure theory. Meanwhile this paperproposed the corresponding risk countermeasures according to the risk assessment results.