Study On Risk Evaluation Of Commercial Real Estate

In recent years, as the increasing maturity of living real estate development, and the constant adjustment of national macro-control policies, there are more and more property developers believing that the development of living real estate have not been attracting any more. But the development and investment of commercial real estate is increasing becoming a focus in real estate development, because of its series of function, such as consumption and service function. More and more real estate developers and investors of agencies are being attracted by the commercial real estate development, especially for its great profits. However, the commercial real estate is a conplex type of estate which contains two high risk fields: the real estate development and commercial operation. When receiving high profits, there are higher risks than that in ordinary projects of residence and commerce. Thus,when faced with commercial real estate projects of high profits and high risks ,we must consider a basic issue at the beginning of its risk analysis. That is how to assess its risk objectivly and accurately, try to increase opportunities of success and decrease possibilities of failure in the process of development and investment.On the basis of referential theroy and method of commercial real estate developmental risk assessment around the world, this paper combines study of literature with investigation, research of quality with quantity. It slao explores method and ideas of quantitative model structure in the real estate developmental risk evaluation, assesses the risk in some concrete commercial real estate developmental project practically, thus coming up with a set of model or methodology which suits the risk assessment of commercial real estate development in China.Aiming at commercial real estate development and combing with its features, this paper begins with the concept and development of commercial real estate projects, and analyses its risk factors in detail, establishing a scientific and reasonable risk assess system. By using AHP combing qualitative research with quantitative research, it has defined different proportion of indexes.This paper gets intuitive data which represents different levels of risks on the basis of quantitative analysis by using multilevel gray evaluation model, thus judging its level of risk, providing reliable basis for developmental management and escape from all kinds of risks.This paper establishes a model for commercial real estate developmental risk assessment and illustrates the science and accuracy of it by analyzing the project in the Heng Mao international metroplis in Nan Chang , concluding that this project's risk is between the ordinary and the higher. This method absorbs experts'experience, combing quality with quantity analysis, so the evaluation results are accurate and practical,which can really assess risks. Besides,this method is practical and operational, which can be applied to commercial real estate to evaluate its risks.