The Research On Dynamic Input-output Model Of Consumption And Industrial Structure Of Hunan Province

With the development of economy and the progress of society, how to allocateresources is quite important.At the same time, to achieve efficient production withusing dynamic input-output model also plays an important role on the developmentof economy. Dynamic input-output theory is a combination of economics, matrixtheory, comprehensive theory of statistic economy, which is based on staticinput-output theory and plays a macro-control role on the development of economy.This article’s work are following:1.The article discusses the development of economy in Hunan provinceestimates the production with the three industry with dynamic input-output model ofconsumption, importation, fixed asset, exportation and inventory and verifies thereliability of the model though comparing with the actual data. At the same time, byanalyzing investment tendency and consumption tendency, the article concludes theimpact of investment and consumption on the three industry, the results optimize theindustry structure and offer a proposal.2.The article analyzes the impact of investment tendency and consumptiontendency to the three industry in Hunan provinc e. The third chapter analyses andforcasts the economic situation with the specific data in Hunan province. The paperanalyzes the impact of investment tendency and consumption tendency to the threeindustry in Hunan province, using the data of investment elasticity to analyses theimpact of the three industry. It is easy to see that the effect of investment is quit eimportant to primary industry. At the part of consumption，the dependence on thefirst and second industry is more than the third and the prope nsity to consume is thebiggest impact on the second industry.3.By proving the stochastic dynamic input-output model with consumption,fixedasset,importation,exportation and inventory is a Markov process, we can use theproperties of Markov process to reach a conclusion that the time of collapse of themodel to infinite is impossible. From the view of mathematics, that means, while thestochastic dynamic input-output model develops to a certain stage, it is must beadjusted, otherwise, the entire economy will collapse. That is also consistent withthe actual situation.