Dynamic Simulation Research Into The Improvement Of Honghu City's Water Environment Based On The Input-Output Theory

Due to human's unreasonable utilization of water resources,the deterioration of water environment in Honghu City has become one of the factors that restrict the development of local economy and society and threaten the health of local residents.To achieve sustained economic growth in Honghu,it is particularly significant to improve the water environment in Honghu.Based on the input-output theory,this study simulates the impact of the policy on the sustainable development of Honghu from 2013 to 2022 by establishing a comprehensive dynamic model of the Honghu water environment improvement policy,and uses the LINGO software to carry out computer simulation experiments.The policy to improve water environment in this study includes the policy of soil and water conservation,the policy to increase the popularity of the sewerage system,the policy to introduce earthworm filters and the treatment technology of the scattered pig wastewater and the adjustment policy of the industrial structure.The dynamic evaluation model of water environment improvement policy in Honghu City includes a goal function of regional economic development maximization,a sub model for analyzing the water environment in Honghu and a sub model to analyze the social and economic development of Honghu,and the relationship between the sub models is related to each other.On the premise of meeting the control target of water pollution,the policy of water environment improvement in Honghu has realized the goal of maximizing the economic development of Honghu,and realized the dynamic balance of the material flow and the value flow between the water environment and the social economy.The results of the simulation experiment show that the policy portfolio has effectively realized the sustainable development of the social economy and water environment in Honghu City.The dynamic evaluation model of Honghu City's water environment improvement policy has simulated the annual economic growth rate between 2013 to 2022 is 12.13%,which is superior to Honghu's actual annual economic growth rate of 9.04% from 2013 to 2016,and the total phosphorus(TP),total nitrogen(TN)and chemical oxygen demand(COD)emissions in 2022 are respectively 14.32%,4% and 22.05% less than in 2012.And,we can achieve the goal of "13th Five-Year plan" and the environmental goals of Honghu governance.In order to ensure the implementation of the water environment improvement policy from 2013 to 2022,Honghu city needs to subsidize new sewage pipeline 110 million yuan,new earthworm filters and disperse pig-raising wastewater treatment pool 50 million,industrial structure adjustment 18 billion 500 million,soil and water conservation 640 million.The industrial structure adjustment policy will make Honghu City's three industries output value proportion to 20%,20% and 60% in 2022,which is 26%,50% and 24% in 2012.