The Emergency Decision Based On Complex Large Group Preferences Conflict

The major disaster emergency decision-making is a typical multi-organizational collaborative decision-making, involving many different levels of organization and decision-making experts’wisdom. Plan seminars, correction and emergency decision-making involved with large scale group and highly complex. Because the background, knowledge and information symmetry of decision makers are different coupled with complexity and uncertainty decision-making environment, the decision-making preferences inherent conflict. Forming a scientific, feasible and acceptable decision-making plan under high time pressure is one of a urgent need in emergency management. So the conflict decision-making is an important scientific problem in the emergency management and decision-making.To the research of the conflicting decisions although some achievements had achieved on coordination method for group decision-making process, they were dispersed. There is no systematic and comprehensive post-conflict decision-making model. Large group conflicting decision making research is rarely studied. So based on the conflict this article establish a multi-objective multi-stage complex emergency decision-making model for large groups and a markov state conflict transition model. These models have certain theoretical significance and practical value.The main research works are as follows:(1) unconventional emergencies and characteristicsThrough case studies and relevant literature, compared complexity and particularity of the decision-making environment and problem with classical research, this article made an analysis of emergency decision-making and their characteristics.(2) The multi-stage&multi-attribute large groups of emergency decision based on preferences conflictAccording to relevant literature and based on characteristics of unknown stage weight and conflicting expert preference in the emergency decision-making process of the decision-making, this article establish a goal programming model to determine the stage weight then amend clustering weight by conflict matrix. Then we constructed a multi-stage and multi-attribute emergency decision-making model after the definitions of application degree to ideal solution based on the preference matrix and application degree to ideal solution based on conflict deviation. This method provides a basis for complex emergency decision-making problem. It has practical significance.(3) Markov conflict state transfer research in complex emergency decision-makingDecision-makers adjust preference matrix in practical decision-making problems because they are more aware of the rapid changes in the decision-making environment. Willing to reach a consensus, decision-making members would like to change their preference matrix according to their own experience, knowledge and character. We took every turn of preference adjustment as a discrete point of time and conflict after adjustment as a state. According to the limited rounds of conflict resolution process constructed conflict state transition matrix in order to predict the development trend of the conflict status in the entire decision-making process.