Research On Dynamic Mechanism Of Xiamen City Real Estate Market Based On System Dynamics

In recent years, China’s real estate industry as a pillar industry of the country hasbeen booming. But also produced a series of issues, for example real estate market isoverheated development, housing prices continued to rise, strong investment demand,rigid demand suppressed due to high prices and other issues. So, national and localunveiled a series of macro-control policy, but the effect of the regulation is notoptimistic. For the healthy development and more rational regulation of the real estatemarket, we must conduct in-depth study of the inherent laws of the real estate market.Research of this paper, it aims to explore the real estate market mechanisms intrinsicmotivation and objective law of development, put forward effective measuresproposed for the healthy development of the real estate market.This paper first outlines the recent development of China’s real estate market andthe housing market in Xiamen City. Then, based on read the literature Law and RealEstate Economics theory, analysis of the main motivating factors of real estate market.After that based on the real estate market demand, supply, and price formationprinciples of systems engineering theory, the real estate market of a large system isdivided into eight subsystems. On the basis of causal analysis theroy studies of theinternal mechanism of internal dynamic factors between the various subsystems, aswell as between the various subsystems causal feedback mechanisms, especially inthe secondary housing market and the rental market impact on the real estate marketmechanism. And the use of system dynamics causal loop diagram establishes the realestate system feedback mechanism, which analyzes the internal dynamic mechanismof the real estate market. Finally, based on historical data of Xiamen City real estatemarket in2000to2010, the use of a random time series prediction method ofeconometrics for variable assignment, use error correction model and EViewssoftware set up a economic mathematical model of various dynamic factors in thesystem dynamics model. On the basis of confirming the variable values and thefunction relationship between variables, use Vensim PLE software to build XiamenCity real estate market system dynamics model, modeling and simulation of Xiamen real estate development track, and compared with historical data analysis, in order todemonstrate the validity of the model.In this paper, the use of the established system dynamics model simulation XiamenCity real estate market trends from2011to2020. By changing the value of the policyvariables in the model, the simulation of the sensitivity of the different regulatorypolicies, analyzes the effects that may arise related to regulatory policy, assess therisk of each control policies, for the xiamen government regulate and control realestate market to provide timely scientific decision basis.