Commercial Bank Of China In Real Estate Business Credit Risk Assessment

In recent years, China’s real estate industry has developed very quickly.Despite the continuous introduction of relevant policies by China’s macro-controldepartments to curb the precipitous rise of housing prices, real estate prices are stillrising in the voices of criticism and regulation. Real estate industry is acapital-intensive industry, which has a relatively large demand for capital. However,the financing channels are relatively limited for China’s real estate enterprises, thereal estate investment trusts have just started, and the asset securitization of realestate mortgage is not yet mature, making the over-reliance of real estate enterpriseson bank’s credit funds and resulting in the over-centralization of the bank’s realestate credit, so the real estate credit risk has become increasingly prominent.Therefore, the real estate credit risk evaluation system of Chinese commercial bankswill be researched in this paper to make recommendations for banks to avoid the realestate credit risk.The main contents are as follows:(1) real estate credit business has showed atrend of rapid expansion in recent years. Real estate development has large proportionof loan, and the credit business of real estate enterprises is developing rapidly.(2) Atpresent, there exist several problems in the real estate credit market of our country,including irrational growth of mortgage loan, uncertainty of repayment source of realestate development loan, single financing channel of real estate enterprises, andmarket information asymmetry, etc.(3) Influence factors of real estate credit loan riskare deeply analyzed from the macro, meso and micro perspectives in this paper. Fromthe macro perspective, the loan interest rate, credit scale, economic growth and realestate prices are the important causes of real estate credit risk. From the mesoperspective, the over-centralized real estate loan of the commercial bank and realinformation asymmetry of estate credit market are the main problems of real estatecredit risk. From the micro perspective, solvency, profitability and growth capabilityof real estate development enterprise are related to the future repayment ability, whichare the important factors that affect real estate credit risk of commercial bank.(4)12financial indicators from32listed real estate development companies are selected inthis paper. Through the principal component analysis of the data, it is found thatbefore offering loans to real estate enterprises, the commercial banks should comprehensively consider the5main factors as the following order: asset size andquality of the enterprise> profitability> growth ability> solvency> short and longterm liability structure, to decide whether to offer loan. Based on the Logisticregression of5principal component factors, asset size and quality of the enterprise,profitability, growth ability, solvency, and short and long term liability structure arenegatively correlated with the credit risk of real estate, which is consistent with actualsituation.(5) Finally, from the angle of the full text, the corresponding managementmeasures of real estate enterprises are put forward, including widening the financingchannel of real estate development enterprises, improving China’s social creditsystem, strengthening the management to the secured goods, enhancing the financialstatus audit of real estate enterprises, intensifying internal incentive mechanism ofbanks and perfecting the supervision procedures after loan.