Research On Development Risk Assessment Of Apartment For The Aged Project Based On Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

Since1999, China became an aging society. The degree of aging increasesseriously. It makes the support for the elderly become the government, society,constructors, operators, the elderly and their children’s common severe problems withthe rapid growth of elderly population. As a new kind of old house, apartment for theaged not only have all kinds of security service facilities that the dispersed family oldersupport don’t have which make the elderly live at ease and comfortable, but also havefamily atmosphere that general endowment institutions don’t have. Apartment for theaged is a new house for aged about combination of family support and communityservice. But，because of starting late in our country, apartment for aged has manyproblems. As a special kind of real estate project, apartment for the aged is highinvestment, slow recovery and high risk project development. In the developmentprocess, it is influenced by policy, economic, technology, etc, facing more uncertainty.The blind investment boom may bring great risk loss for developers. In this case, thispaper will analyze the risk in the process of apartment for the aged project. Through thecomprehensive evaluation of risk, it can get the size of the project risk and providesupport for decision making,This paper takes the old and elderly support as a starting point, introduces the basicconcept of apartment for aged and risk briefly. Through the overview about presentsituation, problems, this paper analyzes the effect of risks about specificity of apartmentfor aged, chooses the index and constructs the risk evaluation index system. As theindex system’s built and combined with level and fuzzy character, based on AHP andfuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, this paper constructs risk evaluation’s fuzzyhierarchical analysis model. It expounds the operation process of model and analyzes anactual project by using the model. At last, from the investors and operators’ point ofview, this paper gives some suggestions about doing good work and taking action inproject of apartment for the aged, to reduce the risk.