Research On Evaluation And Prediction Of Logistics Capability In Three Western Provinces

Nowadays,in the context of economic globalization,the competition between regions is becoming increasingly fierce.In order to have competitive advantage,regional economic development needs to effectively use logistics resources to improve their own logistics capability and promote logistics capability to become an important driving force for their economic development.Therefore,a comprehensive and objective evaluation and prediction of the logistics capability of the three western provinces have important practical and strategic significance.Based on the research results of existing scholars on the evaluation and prediction of logistics capacity,this paper makes an in-depth study on the logistics capacity of the three western provinces of Guangxi,Guizhou and Yunnan.Firstly,this paper expounds the relevant definitions of logistics capability,the existing evaluation index system of logistics capability and the principles of index selection;this paper constructs a new logistics capability evaluation index system from seven aspects: economic foundation,logistics infrastructure,logistics development scale,informatization level,logistics human support ability,logistics development potential and logistics service level.Secondly,AHP and entropy method are used to comprehensively determine the index weight,and the logistics capacity of Guangxi,Guizhou and Yunnan is evaluated in two different dimensions of time and space based on fuzzy matter-element method.In terms of time dimension,the results show that the logistics capacity level of the three western provinces presented an overall upward trend from 2010 to 2020,but the growth rate of the three logistics capacity levels slowed down or decreased in 2020.It can be seen that the level of logistics capacity of the three western provinces has been greatly improved on the whole,and its logistics capacity development process is vulnerable to external factors.In terms of spatial dimension,the study found that there was a large gap in logistics capacity among the 28 prefecture-level cities in the three western provinces,and the logistics capacity of the three provincial capitals was much higher than that of other prefecture-level cities.It shows that there is an unbalanced development of logistics capacity in space.Then according to the evaluation of logistics capacity in space-time dimension and the problems found,this paper puts forward some development suggestions such as improving logistics infrastructure,promoting the transformation and upgrading of logistics industry,paying attention to the training of logistics talents and strengthening the radiation effect of provincial capital cities,so as to realize the coordinated development of the three western provinces logistics capacity.Finally based on the above research data results,combined with the use of grey prediction model and SVR algorithm,this paper makes a short-term prediction of the logistics capacity of the three western provinces.The prediction results show that the logistics capacity of the three western provinces shows a stable development trend from 2021 to 2023,except that the logistics capacity level of Guizhou province decreases slightly in 2021.