Analysis And Prediction Of Rural Residents’ Consumer Demand And Its Influential Factors In Henan Province

Consume is the ultimate goal of producing and is the key process to achieve virtuouscycling of national economy. The Central Plains Economic Zone Construction Programconsiders enlarging consumer demand as a major strategic initiative, and points out that it willbe a crucial period to translate the mode of economy development speed-up in the next decadeonly if it must come first for the translation of consumer demand before. Therefore, it is ofgreat significance to research rural presidents’ consumer demand in Henan Province for thesmooth realization of aim to the central plains economic zone construction. Firstly, the authorlearns the present researching condition of consumer demand through referring to the relevantliteratures, and then statistically describes the recent condition of rural presidents’ consumerdemand in Henan Province. The findings show that either the proportion of food or culturalrecreational services constitutes the total living expenditure decreases while all other rates ofgoods increase. Secondly, using the model GM(1,1) and the model ELES to study on the ruralpresidents’ consumer demand in Henan Province and the findings show that the total marginalpropensity to consume becomes from0.6970up to0.7068, in which the marginal propensityto consume of living and household equipment and services increase largely while the foodand cultural recreational services decrease. The total income elasticity of consumer demand isbeyond1either during sample period or prediction period. Among all kinds of the consumegoods, the income elasticity of consumer demand to each kind of consume goods except foodand cultural and educational entertainment supplies and services is beyond1, but each ofthem shows a tendency of converging to1. According to above findings, the author also usesgrey Verhulst model, second-order differential-exponential smoothing model, DGM(1,1)model and GM(1,1) model to study households’ representative durable consumer goods inHenan Province. The findings show that the market demand is very huge for some of thedurable consumer goods such as refrigerator, air conditioner and shower while color TV andmotorcycle will lose their markets gradually in the next several years. Finally, according to qualitative analysis, the author uses the grey relative degree of incidence model to analyze theimportant influential factors of rural presidents’ consumer demand in Henan Province and thefindings show that the level of income especially the net income from household business isthe most important factor.