| Over the last30years, the development of circulation industry has validated the classical discussion about industry structure and the change of employment, that is, the change of industry structure and employment is not synchronous. And this asynchronous will impair the active effect that the circulation industry has to the employment absorption. It’s worthy of being paid attention that with the rapid growth of the added value, the circulation industry has become an important industrial sector to promote economic development. In a word, the added value of circulation industry would affect the employment structure by ratchet effect, and finally exert a tremendous influence on the development of the tertiary industry and the national economy. However, compared with developed countries, the circulation industry in our country is low in professional level and the quality of labor force. With the enhancement of labor force education level, the voluntary unemployment is becoming an important factor that impedes the circulation industry from developing its employment absorptive capacity. According to the fact described above, the purpose of this text is to analyze the phenomena of the employment change that caused by the change of circulation industry structure theoretically, and to the critical question, we would have empirical test.After a simple retrospect and comment on the relevant articles, and based on the theory of industrial economics, circulation economics, and econometrics, we build the analysis framework of the circulation industry structure and the employment absorptive capability. Studies show that technology can affect the quantity and the structure of employment directly, and the industrial structure or income level would affect the total employment indirectly. On this basis, we also analyze the technical types of the employment effect in the change of circulation industry, which include the Harrods-neutral technological progress, Solow-neutral technological progress and Hicks-neutral technological progress. The labor-saving technical progress would have bigger employment exclusion effect than the capital-saving technical progress. Those problems are significant in the circulation industry.We discuss this problem in a broad sense when it comes to the change of employment structure on the market level. It is thought that if the speed of capital expansion in circulation exceeds the speed of capital deepening, the employment exclusion effect of technology progress would be impaired; the number of people employed will increase with the technology. This is the indirect effect of technology to the total employment. Compared with other industries, the indirect effect is not that significant. Other factors like resource endowment, the population quality, the supply and demand of fund and goods or government policy would also count. As to the affection cause by the change of income level, we analyze the consumer spending under the circumstances that the technology progress, economic grow and income level rose, and further discuss the structural change of circulation and employment absorptive capability.Practically, when analyzing the employment effect of circulation industry, we do not confined to the transverse comparison between areas, but further study the individual differences between provinces. In technical measures, based on the study of correlations between economic development, technical progress, income level and the change of industrial structure by Kalz, Murphy, Smith, Ricardo and many domestic scholars, we use per capital GDP, the staff average wages, and the trading of technical market which stands for technological development level as control variable, build the double logarithm linear panel regression model, and then, make the regression analysis of employment effect influenced by structural change of circulation industry between the two regions. In the end, the factor analysis helps to further study the individual differences.Positive test results show:(1) the added value of circulation industry in the east plays an important role in employment absorption. On the one hand, it’s closely related to the high-development-level of the circulation industry in the east. On the other hand, it subject to the labor productivity level.(2) By calculating the structure deviation we can see that hotels and catering service have highly negative structure deviation in the east compared with the central and western regions, while the structure deviation of other two industries differ little in both areas. It results in the low labor productivity of the whole circulation industry in the east, which directly leads to greater effects to the total employment when the added value of circulation industry is increased by one unit.(3) The employment of circulation industry in the east has a greater influence on the total employment. For one thing, more people would like to take up an occupation in circulation industry in this area. For another, it’s because of the hysteretic nature of the income effect in the central and western area. The positive interaction between the development of circulation industry and the incensement of employment has not been built.(4) The number of corporations in the east affects more to the total employment because the competition between enterprises in this area would bring more involuntary unemployment.(5) The results of factor analysis show that the development condition of circulation industry in the east is better than that in the central and western regions. The economic social environment in the east is much more favorable to the development of circulation industry, and the development of circulation industry in return shows stronger driving roll to the employment in this region.Based on the analysis above, we also point out the future research direction, hoping that the practice guidelines and suggestions provided to the government about circulation industry policy would be operable. |
