Study On Manufacturing Labor Shortage Cause In Zhejiang Province

Since2003,“labor shortage” has spread from the southeast coastalareas to national each big city. Zhejiang province has become the mostserious city for the “labor shortage”.“Labor shortage” should be solvedas far as possible which determines the lifeline of enterprise and affectsthe development of the economy. Reasons to “labor shortage” analysis isnecessary to know well and solve the “labor shortage” problem. When itcomes to reasons analysis, some scholars think that the “labor shortage”should be attributed to the Lewis Turning Point, and the disappearance ofthe demographic dividend. There are also a large number of scholars whodeny the “labor shortage” caused by Lewis turning point, and point outthat the “labor shortage” is caused by many reasons, which have nothingto do with the Lewis Turning Point. Then the people want to ask thefollowing questions: what the reality is? The Lewis TurningPoint whether to explain the “labor shortage” phenomenon? And whatreasons lead “Labor shortage”?In order to answer these questions, this article take LewisModel, Ranis－Fei model, Johannsen Model and Todaro Model as thetheoretical basis, manufacturing industry in Zhejiang Province as theresearch object, theoretically and practically study what facts cause “laborshortage” problem. Firstly, the article does some descriptive statisticalanalysis on manufacturing employment labor shortage situation in Zhejiang province. And then calculate on gross value of industrialoutput, employment and net fixed capital of22industries in Zhejiangprovince during2000-2011, using the econometric model of panel data.Based on comprehensive reference to related research, this articleuses C-D production function of manufacturing industry in Zhejiangprovince to verify the Lewis Turning Point, by which judge whether ornot the Lewis Turning Point is the cause of “labor shortage” inmanufacturing in Zhejiang province. According tothe model results, combined with the actual situation ofZhejiang province manufacturing industry, the article puts forward thecorresponding policy recommendations. And the conclusion of this paperis that Lewis turning point isn’t exist in Zhejiang province, and then,“Labor shortage” in the manufacturing industry in Zhejiang province isnot caused by the Lewis turning point, so this article wants to deeplyanalyze the cause of “Labor shortage” from aspects of labor, industry, thegovernment of Zhejiang province and give the corresponding policyimplications and suggestions.