The Effect Of Import On The Export Of Chinese Industrial Goods—Based On The Analysis Of36Industry Panel Data

In recent years, with the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade, the trade surplus increased year by year, the positive impact of trade surplus is for all to see, the negative impact is also accompanied. Regarding this, the community has expressed great concern. The report on the party’s18th proposed to accelerate the transformation of foreign economic development and promote open towards optimizing the structure, expanding the depth and improve the effectiveness of the direction of change,"change" and "innovation" has become two keywords on optimizing the development of China’s foreign trade. However, the academic research on the relationship between import and export is few, particularly on certain industry; there are some flaws that misguide policies of the relevant authorities, affecting the implementation of the results. Therefore, specifying and narrowing the object of study becomes necessary. As the main force of the import and export industry, accounting for the vast majority of China’s import and export, import and export industry is very representative. This paper summarizes previous results, based on both theoretical and empirical aspects of the36sectors of Chinese industrial goods conduct research and industry from the impact of imports on the relationship between exports and proposed a series of measures to address the issue of China’s trade balance.In2012, China’s industrial goods imports and exports accounted for more than95%share of total imports and, but the number is susceptible to interference from domestic and international factors, and the growth rate often fluctuates. In the import and export industries, is mainly the capital and technology-intensive industries, which accounted for50%,59.13%, while exports of capital-intensive industry has expanded over the prior, export of resource and labor-intensive industries has declined; secondary industry has strong technical content also accounts for a great proportion, imports and exports accounted for68.89%and86.90%. By the view of trading within certain industry, which is mainly concentrated in the capital and technology-intensive industries, explains the technology-intensive industry verticals China’s imports and exports is likely to trade with the developed countries, in great does not mean that has changed China is a trading nation status quo. In addition, from trade competitiveness index, the current industry with greater competitive labor-intensive industries, but this advantage has decreased, while the share of capital and trade competitiveness of exports half of the technology-intensive industries is not strong.After analyzing36sectors of China’s industrial goods imports and exports empirically, we can conclude that the change in import will lead to change in export, export elasticity coefficient means that when import increased by1%, exports increased percentage. The results showed that elasticity of35sectors are positive and factors are different in different sectors, indicating that increased imports of their role in promoting exports, and also showing the existence of such a role in promoting the industry differences. The wood processing and elasticity, Bamboo products industry is negative, indicating that it will increase its imports lead to a reduction in exports. Elasticity coefficient is2.994734textile industry is one of the industry’s largest, indicating that the export sector is highly dependent on imports. Elasticity coefficient greater than1has15sectors, mostly concentrated in capital-intensive industries, increased imports of these industries will lead to the expansion of exports, the trade surplus is likely to cause; elasticity coefficient is less than1has20sectors, mainly in labor, resources, capital and technology-intensive industries and the increase in imports in these industries are unlikely to cause the trade surplus.For Chinese industrial goods import and export trade theory, situation, and empirical analysis, the paper will give some suggestions from the government, industry associations and enterprise. Firstly, the government should understand the relationship of import of industrial36industries impact on exports, and support the high-tech, high value-added industry development vigorously, encourage the transformation of labor-intensive industries actively; ripe for foreign investment in labor-intensive industries environmental pollution or large industries to give to certain restrictions, but encourage foreign investors to invest more in high-tech, product differentiation, and high added value industry; integrate the industry resource to develop economies of scale, encourage enterprises to pursue economies of scope. Secondly, industry associations should improve themselves, enhance service awareness; strengthen exchanges and cooperation with the government to create a favorable external environment for the development of the industry. Thirdly, companies should strive to build their own brand; no price competition among enterprises; avoid vicious competition, contribute to optimizing our export trade to jointly.